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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 6th, 2013–Mar 7th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

As the low off the Oregon coast moves inland and South, light-moderate snowfall amounts are expected through Thursday. The low deteriorates by Friday morning and is being replaced by a ridge, bringing dry, sunny conditions with very little wind. Overnight into Thursday: Light-moderate snow accumulations. Ridgetop winds will blow light from the East. Alpine temperatures near -6 and freezing levels at 1300 m.Friday and Saturday: Ridgetop winds will remain light from the NW-N. Alpine temperatures near -5 and freezing levels rising to 1500 m in the afternoon then falling to valley bottom overnight.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity reported. On Tuesday, many operators in the region did control work using explosives and triggered slab avalanches size 1-3 on N-SW aspects generally above 2200 m.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 80 cm of snow fell over the past week and continues to settle. Moderate ridgetop winds have built winds slabs on lee slopes and terrain features. Wind slabs and storm slab instabilities remain, particularly on the west side of the region where accumulations have been highest.Buried beneath (60-100 cm) exists a surface hoar and a sun crust layer, which continue to be lingering concerns. On solar aspects, the sun crust seems to be more reactive. Large looming cornices exist on ridgelines. Cornice fall could trigger a large slab avalanche on the slope below, especially when the sun comes out on Friday.Below treeline exists a melt-freeze crust with moist snow beneath it. The crust may be bridging instabilities deeper in the snowpack. If temperatures warm at lower elevations, you'll notice the crust breaking down and the snowpack becoming weaker.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.