Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You may be able to trigger avalanches in freshly formed slabs of wind deposited snow. Look for blowing snow and steer around steep slopes with deep drifts near ridges in alpine areas. Approach new terrain cautiously, evaluate the snowpack at upper elevations and wear extra layers for the frigid temperatures. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The winds have continued to transport the existing low-density snow into slabs on lee aspects. If you venture into the highest elevations, you may be able to trigger freshly formed wind slabs in isolated areas. Although unlikely, these small wind slabs may step down into older wind slabs or other interfaces within the snowpack and become large.

    With winds forecasted to switch directions, wind slabs may develop on atypical aspects. Be attentive and watch for actively blowing snow that may be building new and sensitive wind slabs. Choose lower-angle terrain if you experience shooting cracks, hollow-sounding snow, or see recent avalanches. 

    Small wind loaded features at ridgeline can serve as test slopes to gauge the reactivity of fresh wind slabs.

    Photo: Lee Lazzara

Avalanche Discussion

The solstice crust is now buried 20 to 30 inches in western parts of the zone and 5-10 inches in eastern areas. While many reports have indicated the new snow is well bonded to this crust, there is a lot of uncertainty from the upper elevations. Above 6000ft, this crust may be difficult to discern or might not have formed at all. An observation from the Icicle Creek drainage showed that an older melt-freeze crust from 12/8 may be harboring weak, faceted snow beneath it, and an NWAC forecaster observed a very large avalanche on Mastiff Mountain, on the eastern edge of the neighboring Steven’s Pass zone. While we are uncertain what interface this avalanche ran on, the potential for deeply buried weak layers exists. While we do not have widespread reports of avalanches or poor stability test results on deeper interfaces, it warrants caution and careful observation as you venture into higher elevations and more complex terrain. 

Some light snow overnight on Tuesday may transition into a sunny day for Wednesday, with continued bitterly cold temperatures. The cold temps will likely limit any potential for wet avalanches on solar aspects, but you may observe small dry loose avalanches in very steep terrain. While these avalanches may be small, terrain traps and extreme terrain can significantly increase the consequences. 

With a forecasted return to stormy weather on December 30th, tomorrow is a great day to take note of the surface conditions where you travel. Cold temperatures and clear nights may have developed weak, faceted snow or surface hoar. On Wednesday, the sun may form thin surface crusts on steep sunny slopes. When we receive additional snow, the current snow surface could be a new weak layer or bed surface. Use our observation page to let us know what type of snow surfaces you find. 

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