Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE on slopes facing east, south, and west where wet avalanches can occur as the snow surface warms and becomes wet.
On slopes facing north, avalanches are unlikely and the avalanche danger is LOW. Avalanches can still happen but the odds are low.
New snow that fell last Friday & Saturday has mostly bonded well with the underlying snow. However, there have been some very small facets found under the new snow that prevented a good bond and could cause a soft slab avalanche in the new snow about a foot deep and up to 100 feet wide. Assess the bonding between this new snow and the old snow before riding a slope.
Today's strong sunshine and warm temperatures will make the snow surface wet. As this process happens, the snow will lose cohesion and loose wet avalanches will start happening. The snow will be wetter and will warm faster in places with exposed rocks.
The main threat from these slides is being underneath terrain where they occur because they are a like a slurry of concrete rumbling downhilll. Watch for roller balls (see photo below) of snow growing in size and occuring more frequently to tell you that wet avalanches may start happening
Photo shows these roller balls under exposed rocks (E. Romer)
Under yesterday's strong sunshine and warm temperatures, the new snow became wet and produced loose wet avalanches (see photo below). Also, one observer spotted glide cracks in the snowpack in typical areas in Broads Fork where the snowpack sits on top of rock slabs.
On Sunday, there were several soft slab avalanches of new snow roughly 10-18 inches deep and 40-125 feet wide. Notable avalanches were Pinecone Ridge, Patsy Marly, Mineral Fork, Murdock Peak, and Mt Wolverine.
Photo of wet loose avalanches on Mt. Raymond (R. Kosinski)
Yesterday, high temperatures reached upper 30s and low 40s F, but it felt a lot warmer than that in the strong March sunshine. Winds were only blowing about 5 mph.
This morning, temperatures are in the mid to upper 20s F, about four degrees warmer than they were yesterday morning. Winds are blowing from the southwest 10-15 mph and gusting to 20 mph at most ridgelines and peaks.
Today will be similar to yesterday with clear skies and strong sunshine. Winds will blow 5-15 mph from the south and maybe southeast by later afternoon. Temperatures at low and mid-elevations should easily climb into the low 40s F.
Snow depths in the central Wasatch range from 4 feet to over 8 feet deep. Snowfall on Friday/Saturday delivered 10-18 inches of snow. The snow on many slopes became wet except on north facing slopes mostly shaded from direct sunshine. These slopes where the snow became wet yesterday will have an ice crust on them this morning.
According to UDOT avalanche forecaster Mark Sauer who tracks precipitation at Alta Guard, February was the 7th snowiest on record with 124 inches of snow falling (10.4 inches of water), but season totals are still 84% of average.
What happened to the persistent weak layer near the ground? The layer still exists but it is mostly dormant, and we don't expect avalanches to happen on it until something changes in the weather. A major spring storm with feet of new snow could awaken this layer. It also may be a problem again on slopes that produced big avalanches following the series of storms that happened near Valentine's day in the middle of February. See Greg's discussion in the video below.
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
