Avalanche forecast

Eastside Region

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

LOWAvalanche Danger exists at all elevations.  Although unlikely, persistent slab problems are a lingering issue to be considered on Northerly-Easterly aspects at all elevations in complex, rocky and unsupported terrain. 

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The bottom line is that we now have a robust slab resting on a shallow and loose-grained snowpack from November and December.   Northerly-easterly terrain at all elevations especially on steep 35deg slopes, unsupported zones (slopes that terminate above cliffs or convex rolls), and complex, rocky areas are of most concern. The northern part of the forecast zone (Mammoth to Virginia Lakes) which had more residing snow from the early winter is more likely to have these conditions.  Rock outcroppings and cliff bands tend to harbor more cavities and weaker loose grained snow that could be sensitive to skier trigger. Following good travel protocols, such as skiing one at a time, and reducing exposure to these identified terrain features  is advised.

Avalanche Discussion

At a certain point in time when the likelihood becomes low to trigger a persistent slab avalanche, forecasters wrestle with the decision to drop the danger on persistent slab problem for a few reasons: 1) A certain degree of uncertainty almost always exists especially across such a large landscape that the forecast covers. 2) A resulting avalanche would likely be large and consequential. 3) We don’t want to keep too much attention on a very unlikely problem, as that will take away from the attention it deserves when it is more concerning. To be transparent, that is the wrestling that has been taking place amongst the ESAC forecasters the last few days. While test results are becoming less concerning in some areas, they are still propagating energetically in other areas (see recent profile below from Punta Bardini) and are likely to continue to do so for a while. Test results are just one piece of the puzzle though. It is important for you to put your own thought and analysis in deciding what terrain to ride. 

 

RECENT OBSERVATIONS:

-2/8 - Mammoth - Sherwins -Westerly aspect snow structure ~9800ft

-2/8 - Convict- Morrison Col -snowpit

-2/8 - Convict -Morrison Col -snow conditions

- 2/8- June Lk - Snow and weather conditions

-2/7 – Mammoth – Sunny aspects and old Hollywood crown

-2/7 – Bishop Creek: Variable conditions

-2/6 – Mammoth – Punta Bardini: Warming southerlies, tests still propagating in facets on northerlies. 

*Scroll up and click on “Observations” tab to see listing of past 20 observations, or click on the “Resources” menu --> “ESAC Observations” to see listing of all observations.

Regions covered