Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You can trigger a dangerous avalanche on Saturday, particularly at upper elevations. Significant winds Friday evening will combine will transport more snow above 5000 ft where the snow stayed colder, making slabs more reactive near ridgeline. Avoid all slopes steeper than 35 degrees where you find 6" or more of fresh or wind-drifted snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

     

    Wind slabs will be dangerous and large from near 5000 ft and above. Hurricane Ridge has picked up 15-20" of settled snow above the 12/10 crust, so there is plenty of dry snow to move around at elevations above the highest recent rain/snow line (just below 5000 ft).  Snowfall and winds likely peaked Friday evening, redistributing fresh and recent snow to create wind slabs that need time to heal on Saturday. Excersize increased caution as you notice the trees starting to thin as you ascend. Avoid large open avalanche slopes steeper than 35 degrees near and above treeline, sticking to lower angle slopes or those where you find less than 6" of recent snow. Cracking as you travel, settlement, and recent avalanche activity, are all signs that there are dangerous avalanche problems in your terrain. At lower elevations, you may find one or more rain crusts formed during recent storms. This will help limit your avalanche danger to the dry snow above the recent crusts. Keep in mind that a crust can provide a bed surface for avalanches to run on where more than 6" snow sit on top.

    (12/17/2020) These wind slabs formed Wednesday and fresh wind slabs will form anew on Friday.

Avalanche Discussion

While conditions will be dangerous on Saturday, they are likely to become very dangerous right after the sun sets on Saturday and you should not consider lingering in avalanche terrain after dark.

3-4 inches of fresh snow fell on Friday, following 18" of new at Maggie's storm board that fell between last Sunday and Thursday. As of Thursday, the area was just beginning to add snow to previously partially exposed southerly slopes, which now have approximately 8" above the 12/10 crust. Northerly slopes added 25-28" in wind-loaded areas. The snow came in several storms and a cooler system arriving Tuesday produced slightly weaker (less dense) snow down 16 inches that professionals found exhibited significant reactivity in slopes tests. Slightly weaker snow above the 12/10 crust yielded inconsistent results in snowpack tests, but was not believed to be a concern without significant additional loading of snow or rain. There are no layers of concern below the stout 12/10 crust.

 Travel conditions in many lower elevation areas have become challenging following a warm and wet first half of December.  Travel cautiously, particularly in forested areas where numerous obstacles lie just beneath the surface.

2020-21 Forecast Schedule: Avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week when the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, forecast information will be updated daily to include expected conditions and relevant travel advice under the No Rating label.  

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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