Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Rain continues as freezing levels rise to 7500 feet Wednesday. Wet snow avalanches are a big concern right now, in addition to making on-snow travel challenging. Stay off of steep slopes and avoid lower angle and flat areas beneath large, steep slopes, keeping in mind roads and valley bottoms where avalanches could run down to. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    A large (D2) wet slab avalanche was reported in the West North zone Tuesday morning, in conditions not unlike those we're seeing in the West Central Zone.  Check out the report he report HERE.  Wet loose avalanches ranging in size from small to large were reported as well. A very large (D3) avalanche ran to the valley bottom on Stevens Pass yesterday. Glide cracks and glide avalanches were seen, and cornices are sagging. 

    We've got a myriad of wet snow problems that we're encountering- at earlier stages in the rain event wet loose avalanches were more common, but as the water percolates deeper into the snowpack, the problem will shift more towards wet slab avalanches. 

    By Wednesday morning 2-3 inches of rain will have fallen in the West Central zone over the last 36 hours. Snowlines started around 5000ft and are only increasing in elevation.  It is alarming to see this much water falling on a snowpack that was previously mostly dry, low density snow.

    Wet snow avalanches tend to be less predictable than dry snow avalanches, and the chances of a human triggering one are very likely. Natural avalanches are likely. For this reason, stay off of steep slopes, and avoid traveling beneath large, steep slopes as well.

    (1/11/2022) Public Field Report: A wet slab avalanche near Excelsior Peak in the West North Zone, with conditions similar to what we could find in the West Central Zone. This probably occurred Tuesday morning. : NWAC Public Obs

Avalanche Discussion

If you make it up to the highest reaches of the forecast zone, you may still encounter slab avalanches. Strong winds are redistributing snow, and you could trigger a slab avalanche in freshly deposited areas. At this point, the elevations where you might encounter dry snow are probably above our forecast zones, an impressive feat for Wednesday. 

Temperatures shifted from cooler to warm since the New Year, several feet of snow fell and now we've got rain on top. A lone clear day on Sunday (1/9) initiated even warmer temperatures and gave us one good day to get out into the mountains, glimpse recent avalanches, and the chance to quickly check out what's been going on in the snowpack before unsettled weather regained its grasp. There are a lot of uncertainties right now, so stay aware of your surroundings and travel very carefully if you head into the backcountry on Wednesday. 

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