Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: Expect an unsettled day with flurries and southerly winds increasing from light to moderate. Freezing levels could reach 1500m with maximum accumulations of 10cm. Wednesday / Thursday: Continued precipitation under a slight cooling trend. Total accumulations could reach 25cm with consistent moderate southerly winds and freezing levels reaching 800m each afternoon.
Avalanche Summary
Recent avalanche activity includes loose moist sluffs to size 2.0 from daytime warming as well as isolated natural cornice releases to size 2.0. Thin windslabs up to size 1.5 have also been seen.
Snowpack Summary
The recent warm, clear weather has left us with an aggressive melt freeze crust on solar aspects well into the alpine while shady, dead north slopes have grown some small surface hoar and remain powdery. Minor accumulations of new snow now overlie these surfaces. Increasing southerly winds are beginning to build new windslabs in lee locations at ridgecrest. Cornices loom in the alpine and continue to grow under the current conditions. The vast amount of recent storm snow continues to settle and bond while deeper in the snowpack the persistent weakness from mid February remain a lingering concern due to continued sudden planar test results.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.