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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 26th, 2019–Nov 27th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

Winds change direction and increase in intensity.

With a complex wind-loading pattern in an unconventional early season, it will be important to remain cautious, use small terrain features, and gather information where you are travelling.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Clear, cold, and dry weather moves in for the week with strong east/northeast winds.

Tuesday night: Scattered clouds, alpine temperature -15 C, moderate to strong east/northeast winds, no significant precipitation expected.

Wednesday: Clearing skies, alpine temperatures -18 C, strong east/northeast winds, possible flurries, no significant accumulation expected. 

Thursday: Clear skies, alpine temperature -15 C, light east wind, no significant precipitation expected. 

Friday: Clear skies, alpine temperature -15 C, light east wind, no significant precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

Observations are lean right now, but the recent snow combined with wind is expected to form wind slabs with the potential for human triggering. This MIN post has a great photo that is pretty representative of what we're envisioning. If you've been out recently, please let us know what you're seeing on the Mountain Information Network. We're particularly interested in learning how widespread and sensitive the wind slab problem is. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Early season conditions are highly variable. Snow line begins around 1200 m, and the snowpack depth ranges from 50 cm to 150 cm.

The weekend storm produced 20 to 35 cm of snow, which is likely to be redistributed into stiff slabs by strong northeast winds on Wednesday. On steep south facing slopes in the alpine, the new snow rests on a crust. A crust is also present on all aspects below 1600 m, and many locations have surface hoar (feathery crystals) on top of the crust.

Crusts that formed in late October are now buried 50 to 90 cm deep. We're working off of a short list of observations, but this late October crust layer is highly variable and may be associated with both surface hoar and facets. This is a layer to watch over the next week as unlimited visibility and good travel conditions begin to sing the Alpine's siren song. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.