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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 16th, 2019–Dec 17th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Southerly winds overnight will have created slabs in the alpine. Expect rising danger during the day with increased winds, snowfall, and milder temps.

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy with flurries today. 5cm forecast today, with moderate SW winds, -11*C in the alpine. Tonight and tomorrow brings 15cm, moderate to strong SW winds, and warmer temps (-6*C in alpine). Wed brings a mix of sun/cloud, trace snow, and continued moderate SW winds.

Snowpack Summary

20+ cm of new snow now buries the Dec 11 surface hoar layer. Moderate S'ly winds are building pockets of soft storm slab in the Alpine. The Nov 23rd surface hoar/crust/facet combo is down +/-100cm (SH is most prevalent in sheltered treeline locations) but has become increasingly stubborn in testing. The mid-lower snowpack is settled and strong.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated natural avalanche activity was noted on the Macdonald gullies yesterday. Suspect with the increased S'ly winds overnight that natural activity has increased from steep N aspects (Macdonald gullies and Cheops). A skier-controlled sz 1.5 in loose, unconsolidated snow from a N aspect was observed in the Sir Donald area yesterday.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.