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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2018–Jan 26th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

Recently formed storm slabs may still be reactive to human triggers, especially in wind effected areas at treeline and above.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Cloudy with flurries / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 500m.SATURDAY: 10-15 cm of new snow / Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level rising to around 1000m.SUNDAY: 30-50 cm of new snow / Strong to extreme southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level rapidly rising to around 1800m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in this region.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow is being redistributed by moderate southerly ridgetop winds. The reactivity of the new storm slabs is likely to vary greatly depending on elevation/ temperature and orientation to wind. In general, I would expect the touchiest conditions to exist in exposed, higher elevation terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.