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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 28th, 2017–Dec 29th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Light snow fall today through Friday morning.

Weather Forecast

Light snow with accumulations up to 8cm today. Alpine high of -13C with light East winds.  Another 4cm snow forecast to fall overnight. Light Easterly winds and a trace of snow tomorrow.  Temps will remail cold.  Flurries.Accumulation: 8 cm.Alpine temperature: High -13 °C. Ridge wind east: 10 km/h.Freezing level at valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

40cm+ of snow is slowly settling into a persistent slab which sits on the Dec 15 surface hoar. Currently the slab is stubborn to react or has yet to form. Windslab is prevalent in exposed areas above treeline. Solar aspects have a thin crust layer below the slab. Light snow overnight will have buried a thin layer of surface hoar, the Dec 27 layer.

Avalanche Summary

One size 1.5 ski cut surface slab off the west face of Cheops. This slide was observed on Dec 27th but suspect it happened in the Dec 24-25 time period. Expect lenses of thin windslab in the alpine and surface sluffing in steeper protected terrain.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.