Boletín de aludes

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Peligro de aludes

Alta montaña
3 · Notable
Límite del bosque
3 · Notable
Bajo el límite
2 · Moderado
Desactualizado: este boletín caducó 3 years ago. Estás viendo condiciones pasadas, no el boletín vigente.

Lo esencial

The avalanche hazard is Considerable above 2000 feet and Moderate below.  Northerly winds will be moving surface snow, keeping the avalanche hazard elevated on loaded slopes.  Human triggered avalanches are likely 1-3 feet in depth in specific areas.  Natural avalanches are possible.

Public avalanche forecasts are published Wednesday-Sunday.  The next forecast will be produced on 2/28.

Problemas de aludes

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alta montaña
    • Límite del bosque
    • Bajo el límite del bosque
    Probabilidad
    Likely
    Tamaño
    1.5–2.5

    North winds ramped overnight into the mid 50's with gusts to 78 mph recorded at Thompson Pass.  This outflow event is expected to be short lived with strength alredady showing a weakening trend among multiple weather stations.  With the significant amount of snow available for transport, expect to find wind loaded slopes to be sensitive to human triggers up to 2 feet in depth.

    Wind slabs are the most sensitive while they are forming and directly after, which will be the case today.  Being able to identify wind slabs visually and by feel, and anticipate what slopes are loaded is important in avoidance of this avalanche problem.  Pay attention to the wind direction that is/has occurred in the area you are traveling.  Clues like fresh wind lip formation that points towards loaded slopes and eroded snow faces that point towards where the wind is coming from can help with anticipating what slopes are loaded.  The general direction forecasted is North, althogh the direction of valleys and terrain has a big influence on wind direction.  Visual clues will also be present, wind loaded slopes may have a fat pillowed look to them or a rippled texture.  Finally the feel of a wind slab will vary by how old it is.  Today they will be fresh and probably still fairly soft, but still stiffer at the surface than the snow beneath.

    Pay attention to the degree of wind loading in the area you choose to travel as well as the depth and sensitivity.  Small test slopes are a great way to test this.  Watch out for signs of instability such as shooting cracks, collapsing and active wind loading.  

    Wind slabs that are triggered will have the potential to step-down to the interface of the storm snow and old snow and produce deeper more destructive avalanches (see problem 2).

    Example of strong north wind redistributing snow at upper elevations

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta montaña
    • Límite del bosque
    • Bajo el límite del bosque
    Probabilidad
    Possible
    Tamaño
    1.5–3

    The 2/20-22 storm cycle left us with 2-3 feet of settled snow and a widespread natural avalanche cycle on 2/22.  This cycle was triggered by intense snowfall rates and strong southerly winds at the tail end of the storm.  Some naturals had very wide propagations associated, which indicate surface hoar that formed during the clear weather of 2/14-16 were buried intact in isolated locations and acted as a weak layer.  Other naturals were simple overloading of the upper snowpack by snow and south wind (direct action avalanches).  Surface Hoar is expected to be varied in its distribution which will make stability assessment challenging moving forward.

    The 2/20-22 storm has now had 2 1/2 days of settlement time decreasing the chances of triggering the ~2 feet of settled storm snow in most areas.  Human triggered avalanches remain likely in isolated areas where surface hoar that was buried on 2/17 exists in the upper snowpack.  This problem is much more difficult to assess than wind slab or storm slab as the distribution of the layer is spotty and may not give signs of instability until you hop on the slope and trigger an avalanche.  

    This weak layer will exist in wind protected basins above 2500'.  Below 2500' rain on snow at the beginning of the storm will have removed this layer.  Better stability has been observed and reported below 2500' as storm slabs are shallower and well bonded to the rain crust below.

    Digging snowpits and having an understanding of what areas are typically wind protected are the best ways to identify this problem.  Realize that digging snowpits can often give confusing or misleading results.  These should be used to tell you where not to go.  A lack of results in one pit is not sufficient information to expose you or your group to consequential avalanche terrain.  This type of avalanche problem takes much longer to heal than a typical storm slab.  More information will need to be gathered to better understand distribution and sensitivity.

    Natural avalanche 2/22 North Three Pigs

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

We currently have multiple avalanche problems to contend with.  The most likely one to encounter today and luckily the easiest to assess is wind slab.  North winds are currently working away at the snow surface building fresh slabs on the lee side of ridges, terrain features, and cross loaded gullies.  This wind event looks like it will be a short one, so wind slabs are expected to be confined to lee of high elevation ridges and mid elevation terrain near Thompson Pass or other wind channeled terrain.

The next problem to watch out for will be the 2-3 feet of storm snow that fell on 2/20-22.  Most areas will be gaining strength with the likelihood of human triggers lowering with time.  Areas where Surface hoar exists will remain succeptible to human triggers longer than what a typical storm slab would be.  The differentiation of what areas may hold this weak layer is an important one and unfortunately a difficult task.  Wind protected basins above 2500' will be the most likely areas to harbor this instability.  Realize that this type of weak layer is notorious for catching even the most seasoned veterans off guard and has been responsible for many avalanche incidents in the past.

A rain crust exists up to 2000-2500'.  Below this around a foot of settled storm snow exists on top of the crust.  Surface hoar will not be present where a rain crust is present as warm temps and rain on snow at the beginning of the storm cycle would have destroyed the above mentioned weak layer.

 

Valdez season snowfall: 247  inches

Valdez February snowfall: 41 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 74 inches

Thompson Pass snowfall data is currently unavailable

46 mile height of snowpack: 76 inches

 

 

 

 

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