A widespread rain crust on the snow surface will make for generally safe avalanche conditions, but unwelcoming riding conditions.
Wind slabs may exist in the high alpine where the snowpack might remain dry.
If the snow surface remains dry in the high alpine, strong westerly winds may have redistributed available snow into wind slabs in lee areas. Be aware as transition above the rain crust and avoid any wind-loaded areas.
If the sun comes out today, strong solar radiation compounded by warm temperatures may weaken the upper snowpack in the afternoon, creating wet loose avalanches on steep solar aspects.
A ridge of high pressure continues to bring dry conditions into Saturday.
Friday Overnight: Mainly clear. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom. Moderate to strong northwest winds at ridgetop.
Saturday: Mainly cloudy. Freezing level rising to 1900 m in the afternoon. Moderate to strong northwest winds at ridgetop.
Sunday: Cloud cover increasing. Freezing level rising to 1500m. Light to moderate westerly winds at ridgetop.
Monday: Snowing. Freezing level rising to 1000 m in the afternoon. Light to moderate westerly winds at ridgetop.
Numerous wet loose avalanches were observed on all aspects and elevations on Thursday from the rain event that occurred on Wednesday.
Last Sunday, a deep persistent slab avalanche was likely triggered naturally by intense warming and sun and released on depth hoar or the November crust. It occurred just south of the region (see this MIN report).
A 1-5 cm breakable rain crust exists on all aspects and elevations from the rain event on Wednesday. Dry snow may exist in the alpine above 2300m, and will have been transported by westerly winds into wind slabs in lee areas.
Below the crust, last week's 30-50 cm of storm snow buried a weak layer of surface hoar crystals. The last reported avalanche on this layer was on February 7th in the southeast of the region and it is becoming increasingly hard to find in the snowpack with no recent reactivity in tests.
The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded. The base of the snowpack is expected to be weak and faceted in shallow, rocky slopes east of the divide.
