The new snow will not bond well to the weak, sugary old snow. Expect to see rider triggered sluffing in steep terrain and natural avalanches in extreme terrain.
Keep the Jan 30th persistent weak layer in the back of your mind, especially on solar slopes where facets sit on a buried suncrust.
20-50cms of snow overlays a buried persistent weak layer. This weak layer is consists of surface hoar, facets and/or a suncrust. It will be most reactive where there is a settled, cohesive slab on top of a crust.
New snow falls on weak sugary crystals from the prolonged dry/cold spell. Expect this new snow to be sluffing naturally from cliffs and steep areas. It will likely also be reactive to rider triggering, especially in steep terrain. Manage your sluff accordingly!
We have observed small (up to size 1) dry loose natural and rider triggered avalanches in steep unsupported terrain this week.
Field teams and MIN reports have observed some whumping and cracking in exposed areas.
Neighbouring operations, particularly to the west, are still reporting rider & remote triggered avalanches on the Jan 30th layer.
New storm snow sits on a facetted upper snowpack. Open areas in the alpine & treeline had extensive wind affect that is now softening due to surface faccetting.
A weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) is 20-50cm down. This layer has been showing signs of reactivity on solar slopes, where facets sit on a suncrust.
The Jan 7th layer is down 50-80 and is decomposed surface hoar or a thin crust on South and West aspects. This layer has been innactive recently.
Slightly warmer temperatures are on the way with some snow in the forecast Sun/Mon.
Tonight Cloudy with flurries. Alpine low -12°C. Ridge winds Southeast 15 km/hr
Sunday Cloudy & snowing 10cms. Alpine high -7°C. Wind: East 10-20km/hr.
Monday Cloudy with flurries. 5cms new snow. Alpine high -9°C. Light E Wind.
Tuesday A mix of sun & cloud. Alpine high -11°C. Light SW wind.
