East Slopes Central

While avalanches are unlikely, there are a few things to keep in mind. If you travel in very steep alpine terrain small sluffs or pieces of wind-drifted snow could be enough to push you off your feet. You should also expect challenging travel on various slick crusts and wind-stiffened snow. 

Hazards from travel conditions may be equal to any avalanche hazard on Thursday. Many surfaces are slick from either frozen crusts or wind-scouring. Consider bringing appropriate equipment to limit any slips in steep icy terrain.

Older wind-drifted slabs have gained strength and will be difficult to trigger. If you managed to trigger any avalanche it would likely be small and isolated to steep terrain features at high elevations. Even small avalanches could have high consequences in very steep, extreme terrain. If you're going to climb, ski, or ride in consequential, observe how wind-drifted snow reacts before committing to steep slopes. Temperatures will warm a bit more on Thursday, though inversions may keep the valleys cold. Any wet loose avalanche activity should be minimal between the wind, cloud cover, and a lack of soft surface snow. If the sun does poke out, look for rollerballs or pinwheels to indicate wet loose avalanches are possible. On Wednesday, Matt Primomo traveled above treeline in the Mountaineer's Creek drainage. He found a wind-affected and mostly unreactive snowpack with isolated shallow instability from wind-drifting. He observed light wind transport and cold snow surfaces.

The snow near the surface and just above the MLK crust (6-18" below the surface) is weakening. So far, it hasn't been a cause of avalanches, but that could change with additional loading events. The last significant storm in the East Central area was over MLK weekend which formed an easily identifiable melt-freeze crust in the snowpack. While we're still tracking the Jan 4th buried surface hoar layer, it is unlikely you could trigger an avalanche on this layer beneath the stout MLK crust. In the Blewett Pass area on Tuesday, Katie Warren and I observed test results showing potential for propagation on this layer. There is a chance that a potent storm could reawaken this layer.