Northern New Mexico

An Avalanche Warning is in effect for Friday into Saturday morning as very dangerous avalanche conditions develop during the day from an Atmospheric River bringing significant snowfall and strong winds to our mountains. Storm totals are expected to be around or exceeding 2 feet by the time the storm makes its exit Saturday. Avoid being on or underneath 30 degree terrain. We expect to see a widespread natural avalanche cycle at all elevations on north and east aspects. Travel in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended. 

Heavy snow and strong winds will create very dangerous avalanche conditions, as freshly formed slabs and added weight will quickly overwhelm very weak facets and depth hoar that have formed during the dry winter we've had. Avalanches will grow in size at upper elevations and are likely to release naturally during the day. Some of these avalanches may run long distances well into the flats below. 

An atmospheric river that crushed the Sierra's is making its way into NM early this morning. Snow started falling around 1AM and snow totals at 6 AM are......... with .4" of SWE.  Forecasts and recent model runs are showing intense snowfall throughout day with over 1.5" of SWE and 2 feet of snow possible by Saturday morning. W/SW winds are expected to be in the 20 -30 mph range with gusts in the 50's during the day. At times we are expecting 1 to 2 inch an hour snowfall rates as snow totals are expected to ramp up quickly this morning and go throughout the day.  Snow will stay with us overnight into Saturday where we could pick up an additional 4 - 8 inches. 

Yesterday in travels we got several loud audible whumpfs near and below treeline where strong winds have built slabs over weak faceted and depth hoar snow. In snowpits, long-column tests were failing with easy force or failing on isolation. Our November - January drought layer is incredibly weak and fragile and will more than likely easily fail with our first significant storm of the season since the beginning of November. It's the middle of February but you could've fooled me, cause it certainly looks like December. South aspects are melted back to bare ground. Below treeline, snow remains on Northerly aspects but nowhere else. Strong winds over the last week have stripped and scoured west aspects where we could see inverted tracks in cross-loaded gullies. North and east aspects seem to be the sweet spot where we're expecting to see natural avalanches, mainly near and above treeline, but also extending into northerly terrain at lower elevations.  

I'd suspect natural avalanches to start in the more wind-sheltered terrain on northerly aspects that have near surface facets at the old snow interface.  At upper elevations and our more solar aspects, hard slabs from strong winds over the last week and more robust melt-freeze crusts from the warm temperatures to begin February will be able to hold more weight.  We've kept the avalanche danger at Considerable (Level 3 out of 5) because these avalanches will mainly be focused on northerly terrain and will be smaller than what we expect to see at upper elevations.  

Just make it simple today, the very weak, fragile snowpack won't be able to handle the first significant storm of the season. Avoid being on or connected to steep slopes above you. These types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches. That means, you may be on relatively flat terrain but can trigger an avalanche above you. Loud audible whumpfs most likely will be widespread, especially on northerly and east aspects. These are indications you've found a slab over a collapsable weak layer and unstable snow. 

Today's a good day to sit by the fire or ride inbounds. Temper expectations, as our snowpack is typically what we see in early December, shallow and weak. There are two sides to every story and honestly conditions were about as bleak as I've ever seen them for the middle of February, so a warm wet and windy storm will undoubtedly improve travel and skiing conditions (we just don't have a base right now as ski and boot pen is pretty much to the ground in a 70 -120cm snowpack). Yesterday, Charlie and I skinned downhill, it was that bad. But with the new snow will also come increased avalanche danger. Our very weak facets and depth hoar are going to struggle with this storm. We'll see what our mountains look like after, but it can't get any worse than what we had before this storm. It's just going to take time for avalanche conditions to ease. But on the bright side, the mountains are going to be getting much needed moisture as we head to spring and fire season.