Tuesday will be much cooler which helps with improving overall stability but another cold front storm is coming. Potentially up to 25cm in the region Wednesday to Thursday may increase the overall hazard depending on how the storm evolves.
This problem layer is the crust and facets created by early February's warm spell. It is down 30-90 cm in the snowpack and is a 1-10 cm thick crust or multiple crusts with a layer of weak facets above.
The base of the snowpack is inherently weak and untrustworthy. Tickling this deep layer would result in a high consequence avalanche. Any avalanche in the upper snowpack has the potential to step down to the base of the snowpack.
The recent dramatic warming has moistened surface snow to mountain tops on all aspects and elevations except the high north. The moist snow sits on the Feb 3rd crust interface down 35-60cm. Basal depth hoar makes up the bottom third of the snowpack. HS ranges from 80 to 130cm.
Mountain Weather Forecast is available @ Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Tuesday will bring flurries, -2 °C, and light winds. Expect flurries on Wednesday and potentially 12cm of snow, light winds, and 2000 metre freezing level. Another 7cm on Thursday, and -16 to -10 °C. Friday could be -18 to -9 °C.
The past three days have had numerous loose wet avalanches on steep sunny aspects plus large slabs running on the Feb Crust with some stepping down to ground. Saturday's explosive control work released a few size two slabs and wet loose avalanches. Relatively less activity was noted in Maligne lake area.
