No overnight freeze combined with 3000m freezing levels means less window for safe travel, even early in the morning. Steer clear of steep slopes when they are moist or wet and give cornices a wide birth. Check out the Forecaster's Blog for information on spring conditions.
Strong solar radiation and warming will likely trigger the large cornices that hang over ridge lines. Cornice falls are a hazard on their own, but could also trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.
With multiple nights of no overnight refreeze, expect natural and human triggered wet loose avalanches on a variety of aspects and elevations. Danger will be greatest on steep sun exposed slopes.
The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you'll want to be with your terrain selection. Wet loose avalanches can entrain a lot of snow and cross elevation bands.
Prolonged warming could increase the sensitivity of deeply buried layers in the snowpack. While these layers have not been reactive lately, you should practice increasing caution during this period of warm weather. Steep rocky terrain with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack are most suspect.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear / light, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +3 / Freezing level 3000 m.
SATURDAY: Sunny / light, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +8 / Freezing level 3000 m.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy, clearing in the afternoon / strong east ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 0 / freezing level 1700 m.
MONDAY: Sunny / moderate easing to light southeast wind / alpine high +7 / freezing level 2400 m.
We don't have a lot of information coming in for this region, but there have been reports of wet loose avalanches on south-facing slopes at all elevations and a few size 2-2.5 cornice failures on north and east facing slopes.
The lower snowpack has been strong and settled over the past month, however, the dramatic warming this week could potentially wake up weak facets at the bottom of the snowpack. This is particularly a concern on steep, rocky slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack. Cornice failures or a rider hitting a thin spot in the snowpack are the most likely ways to trigger these weak layers.
Lingering wind slabs may still be reactive in isolated locations on steep northerly aspects in the alpine that still have dry snow. All other terrain has been undergoing a melt-freeze cycle with successive days of warm sunny weather. Things will be "more melt, less freeze" on Saturday as we do not expect a good overnight recovery.
Strong solar radiation and warming will trigger more wet loose avalanches on Saturday as the snow loses cohesion. Cornices are large and fragile. Cornice falls could trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.
The snowpack is overall strong and settled in most areas, however, sustained warming can increase the likelihood of large avalanches failing on deeply buried weak layers.This is most likely to occur on steep, rocky alpine slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.
