The hazard is likely Low in most places where a strong surface crust exists. However, if you observe the crust breaking down during the heat of the afternoon, assume that wet loose avalanches could still be possible on steep slopes.
Loose wet avalanches may still be possible on steep sun-exposed slopes where the surface crust breaks down during the heat of the afternoon.
One more day of very warm and sunny conditions before the ridge breaks down Sunday night. A weak system is forecast to bring light snowfall Monday morning.
Saturday night: Mostly clear, light NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.
Sunday: Increasing cloud cover in the afternoon, moderate SW wind, freezing levels 2500-3000 m.
Monday: Light snow in the morning, sunny in the afternoon, moderate NW wind, freezing levels 1000-1500 m.
Tuesday: Mainly sunny, strong NW wind, freezing levels reaching around 2000 m.
No new avalanches have been reported recently. A few recent MIN posts are showing a widespread, supportive crust and no recent avalanche activity. If you are out in the mountains, please let us know what you are seeing.
For Sunday, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of a surface crust. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible on steep, sun-exposed slopes if the surface crust breaks down during the heat of the afternoon.
A widespread surface crust has now formed at all elevations. This crust still may have the potential to break down on steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon but this is now becoming pretty unlikely after a few days of melt-freeze cycle.
Below the surface crust, 10-60 cm of moist or wet snow and deteriorating crust layers sit above the thick late-January crust which extends to mountain top elevations on all aspects. The mid and lower snowpack is considered well settled and strong.
Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.
