Boletín de aludes

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Peligro de aludes

Sun
Alta montaña
2 · Moderado
Límite del bosque
2 · Moderado
Bajo el límite
2 · Moderado
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Desactualizado: este boletín caducó 2 years ago. Estás viendo condiciones pasadas, no el boletín vigente.

Lo esencial

The snowpack should start to change from wet and soggy to firm and potentially snowy on Saturday. Low-likelihood, high-consequence wet slides could still occur, particularly in the morning. Expect variable and difficult travel conditions throughout the zone.

Problemas de aludes

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alta montaña
    • Límite del bosque
    • Bajo el límite del bosque
    Probabilidad
    Unlikely
    Tamaño
    2–2.5

    Saturday should be a transition day as we move toward colder weather. We'll be starting the day warm, however. So keep low-likelihood, high-consequence wet slides in the back of your mind until a thick surface crust develops. We've gone several nights without a strong overnight freeze, and rain showers have popped up here and there the past few days. Wet slides are always tricky to predict but we suspect that most slab activity should be finished. That doesn't mean you won't see a random cornice fall or a block of snow shed from rocks/cliffs. We're talking about low-likelihood, high-consequence type slides here, similar to when managing a deep persistent issue. You aren't likely to trigger one of these slides, but the snowpack is still weak - so if it happens, it will probably be large.

    (12/20/2024)

    Glide cracks like these can lead to glide avalanches with little or no warning. Sluiskin Falls, Paradise, Mt Rainier.

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

After a week of warm and wet weather, we'll finally start to cool down on Saturday. It should start in the morning with strong winds helping to keep the surface cool in exposed areas and thus, limit avalanche potential. As the day continues, a frontal system will move into the area, bringing precipitation. We're crossing our fingers for mostly snow, but can't rule out rain or a wintery mix in some locations. It will depend on how quickly freezing levels drop. The wind direction should shift as this storm approaches, but stay in the strong range. Take all of these weather features together and the hope is that the surface will freeze across the zone, ending wet avalanche problems. It's the Solstice (yes winter, not summer), so the day will be short. But if enough snow falls with these strong winds, you might encounter a few pockets of drifted snow at upper elevations by day's end.

On Tuesday, an atmospheric river (AR) delivered anywhere from 3-6 inches of rain to the West South zone, resulting in a major avalanche cycle and deteriorating travel conditions. On Friday, NWAC forecasters were at Paradise and Crystal Mountain and found evidence of widespread natural avalanche activity. Most steep slopes had avalanche debris on them. Both slabs and loose slides were spotted and there were likely several rounds of avalanches throughout the storm. Many of the slabs were shallow, but broke widely, On the surface, open areas had a mostly supportable crust while protected areas contained punchy wet snow.

The snowpack really took a beating this week. Be prepared for firm crusts, rain runnels, frozen avalanche debris, swollen creeks, open holes, and exposed rocks/logs. If the surface is firm and slick, there’s a chance you could slip and go for a long uncontrolled slide. Travel with the appropriate gear and when in doubt, default to lower-angled slopes.

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