Ogden

Problemas de aludes

• 

  Loose Wet

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Alta montaña
  • Límite del bosque
  • Bajo el límite del bosque

  Probabilidad

  Likely

  Tamaño

  2

  Natural and human triggered wet avalanches are expected today.

  Rapidy warming temperatures and - initially - direct sun wil rapidly destabilize the recent storm snow on east then south then westerly facing aspects. These wet sluff and potentially wet slab avalanches will run fast and far on the slick underlying crusts with wet concrete-like debris piling up deeply in runout zones below. Pinwheels, rollerballs and damp sluffs will be early indicators of instability. Be very aware of changing conditions within the snow as it becomes damp and unstable - DO NOT OVERSTAY YOUR WELCOME ON THE STEEP SOLAR ASPECTS. Plan your day accordingly.

  *This should be your guidance heading into the morning. The cloud cover streaming in from the west today provides uncertainty on how this will affect the snow surfaces. The mid and upper level clouds may shield the snow from the full blast of the sun; and/or the clouds may provide for "greenhousing". This may accentuate the wet activity even on some lower elevation northerly terrain.

• 

  Persistent Slabs

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Alta montaña
  • Límite del bosque
  • Bajo el límite del bosque

  Probabilidad

  Possible

  Tamaño

  1

  I suspect there may be a few booby traps out there. We have 6-12" of fresh snow over the past couple of days sitting over some crusts and very weak snow on the shady aspects. We know that we have weak snow; it's just that we don't know if we have enough new snow to tip the balance. Cracking and collapsing are signs of instability and snow tests are helpful. There is a lot of variability and uncertainty about this unstable layering so I would recommend staying on lower angle terrain with nothing steep above.

  My observation in Broads Fork of BCC Friday looks at this more in depth HERE.

  What to Do With Uncertainty?

  • If the game is rigged, choose not to play. In other words, owing to the high uncertainty and the nature of the problem, choose low angle slopes with nothing steep above. We rode low angle northerly terrain yesterday and it was the best in two months.
  • Choose aspects that do not harbor the PWL: we know that northwest through east aspects harbor the PWL. West to southwest to south to southeast aspects do not harbor the PWL and these aspects will ride nearly as well today.