Southeast Mountains

A Special Avalanche Bulletin is in effect for the Southeast Mountains. The snowpack teeters near the edge of failure on many slopes.  You can trigger a dangerous avalanche on most aspects and elevations.  Avalanches can be triggered from a distance and from below steep terrain.  Cracking and collapsing are clear signs you have found unstable snow, but the absence of these does not mean safer conditions.  Conservative terrain selection is the safest option.  Triggered avalanches are a threat on the small hillsides surrounding the towns of CB and Mount CB.

A week-long stormy period ended just a few days ago.  During this prolonged loading event over 200 avalanches were observed with far more going unobserved.  Avalanche activity spanned all elevations and occurred around the compass.  This helps illustrate the widespread nature of slab formation and weak layer distribution.  Concern for natural avalanche activity greatly diminished over the past two days, but the threat of human-triggered avalanches persists.  The threat of human-triggered avalanches even extends to the small hillsides surrounding and in the urban areas of CB and Mount CB.  A Special Avalanche Bulletin has been issued for the Southeast Mountains, where large slab avalanches are especially sensitive to human triggers right now, but you can find dangerous conditions in both forecast zones.

Recent observations suggest that in some places you may receive overt warnings of the danger with loud collapses as mentioned in this observation from Schuylkill Ridge. Other times you may not experience signs of instability before releasing a dangerous avalanche like in this observation from Mount Baldy on Friday.  In general, the shallower the snowpack the more likely you are to experience signs of instability and the deeper the snowpack the less likely you are to see these obvious warning signs.  Unfortunately, even in areas with a deeper snowpack human-triggered avalanches are a threat, you are just less likely to be warmed by the snowpack beforehand.  This observation from Kebler Pass illustrates this with snowpack tests from a couple of locations with varying slab thickness above the weak layer.  The weak layer in all locations continues to look poor and has yet to increase in strength.

Choosing lower-angled terrain will be the easiest and most reliable way to have a safe day in the mountains.  Some slopes avalanched late in the storm cycle and present a much lower likelihood of having an avalanche problem, however attempting to ride bed surfaces on recently avalanched slopes is challenging to do safely and requires an advanced skill set.  Low-angled terrain is riding great right now.

A weak storm system is moving into the area today, but only a few inches of snow are expected.  This minor load is not anticipated to have much impact on the already dangerous conditions.  Reduced visibility may make it harder for you to identify overhead hazards and potentially allow you to walk beneath terrain you'd otherwise avoid.  Plan your route thoroughly to avoid unintentionally triggering an avalanche from below.