Northern New Mexico

You can trigger a large persistent slab avalanche in faceted weak layers on or near the ground.  Stiff cohesive slabs from the holiday storms rest on top of these persistent weak layers leading to an overall poor snowpack structure on most slopes.  Recent strong winds have drifted snow at upper elevations into stiffening harder slabs that will feel firm underfoot and appear lens shaped across slopes.  Expect any avalanche triggered to break on or near the ground taking with it most of the seasons snowpack.  It's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance a way  or from the bottom of a slope so give steep slopes above you wide berths. 

A warming trend continues today and Saturday ahead of a more active weather pattern that pushes into northern NM Sunday through the middle of next week.  The last storm on Wednesday brought an inch of snow with very strong west/northwest winds. These strong winds on Tuesday and Wednesday stripped and scoured some slopes and drifted snow onto others pressing it into harder slabs at upper elevations. It may be possible to find an isolated pocket of wind-drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features like gullies.  Although it's possible to trigger a slide in a wind drifted pocket the most likely scenario is that it will step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  Harder slabs have a tendency to break in unpredictable ways and oftentimes well above you and wider across terrain features. 

The snowpack has been slowly adjusting since the last significant load earlier in the month. However, the overall poor snowpack structure of strong over weak remains and faceted layers near the ground has been slow to heal as snowpack depths are only 100 - 150cm deep on most slopes.  In recent travels, immediate feedback of unstable snow like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks has been less present and may not be present until you're in the wrong spot on the slope. In the overall shallow snowpack, weak layers are still able to easily be collapsed, especially near treeline where slabs are less stiff and snowpack depths are shallower.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings as this is where the snowpack is shallower and you're more likely to collapse weak layers and create an avalanche. Tracks on a slope are also not an indication that the slope is safe and it may just take you finding that "not-so-sweet spot" to trigger a large and destructive avalanche. 

An active weather pattern returns Sunday through the middle of next week bringing a return of snow and strong winds that will bring another test of our persistent weak layers. Expect the avalanche danger to increase in the coming days for this holiday weekend and stick with us through next week.  Lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain will provide the best and safest skiing and riding options over the next couple of days.