10-20 cm of new snow and cooling temperatures will bring back winter for the 4th (or 5th) time this winter :)!
Forecasted snowfall amounts are uncertain, with some models/ locations showing up to 40cm!
More snow will equal higher danger - adjust accordingly!
10-20 cm is forecasted to fall with moderate SW winds overnight Monday. This may create fresh windslabs in immediate lee features at alpine and treeline elevations and will bury pockets of old windslab. Often, fresh windslabs are most reactive where they overlie buried crusts (ie. solar aspects)
The Feb 3 layer is down 60-130 cm. In shallow snowpack areas on northerly alpine aspects, this layer may still be sensitive to skiers. All recent avalanches that initiated on this Feb 3 layer stepped down to the basal facets/ground.
Cooler temperatures and cloud cover on Monday kept avalanche activity to a minimum.
During the past weekends warm temperatures and sun, many avalanches stepped down to the Feb. 3/basal facet layer (See photos). These were a combination of solar triggered or cornice triggered on polar aspects.
There were also several reports of skiier triggered windslabs in high northerly aspect terrain.
10-20 cm is forecasted to fall by Tues AM. This will cover widespread moist snow/crusts on solar aspects and lower elevations and wind effect on high north aspects. Cooling temps will freeze up this buried moisture over the next few days.
The midpack is well settled down to the Feb 3 persistent weak layer which remains a concern in shallow snowpack areas on northerly alpine aspects. In these areas, no crusts are found in the upper snowpack and the midpack remains thin and weak.
Winter returns with a low pressure system coming in from the NW:
Monday overnight: 5-10 cm in most areas but possibly 15-30 cm in some areas. Moderate SW winds switching to NE. Freezing levels lowering to valley bottom.
Tues: Snow tapering in the AM (lingering on the east side). Moderate NE winds.
Wed - Thurs: Clearing and drying. Temperatures remain cold.
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