Northwest Mountains

On some terrain features, it remains possible to trigger an avalanche that breaks up to several feet thick on weak snow near the ground.  Previously wind-loaded slopes that face north or east are most concerning.  Carefully assess the snowpack for dense slabs over weak snow, and consider the potential consequences before riding in avalanche terrain.

We're bobbing in a sea of yellow as our well-advertised weak layers slowly adjust to the major loading events earlier this month.  The only exception to Moderate danger is below treeline in the Southeast Mountains, where, at a zone-wide scale, the problem is relatively small and isolated across the terrain.  The danger is Low there because slabs are thinner and have been quicker to adjust.  You're most likely to find lingering instabilities along the border of our two zones, in areas like Snodgrass (see this ob), or on a slope that was previously drifted.  

The recent mild temps and lack of significant loading are also helping the snowpack slowly adjust elsewhere.  It's just a slow and steady process that takes time.  Our visualization tools illustrate the decline in avalanche activity and signs of instability this week (Scroll down to the bottom two graphics).  We want to emphasize that our most recent avalanches last Sunday (Schuylkill Ridge, Treasury Mtn) would have been difficult to survive.  As the likelihood decreases, the size remains the same: the conundrum of a snowpack plagued by persistent slab issues.  If you aren't interested in this lower likelihood but consequential scenario, the low angle is riding great right now and steep southerly aspects are also a more trustworthy option (except for high southeasterly slopes).  If you are stepping out into the suspect northerly or easterly aspects where our buried weak layers are lurking, you can reduce your risk on smaller slopes with clean runouts.  Slopes that ran naturally earlier this month are a safer option.  Previously drifted slopes with variable snow depths and/or rock bands tend to be the most problematic as time goes on.  Focus your decision-making on the consequences if something goes wrong, and practice sound travel habits like traveling one at a time in avalanche terrain.  

Alpine winds increased to transport speeds last night out of the north.  With only a few inches of snow available for transport, wind slab formation will be relatively minor.  However, don't get caught by surprise if you kick off a thin wind drift in high-consequence terrain.  

The Fireside Chat series kicks back off this Saturday 12/16. Here is more info. We hope to see you there!