It remains possible to trigger a very large avalanche on several persistent weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack. If you see signs of instability such as recent avalanches, wind-drifted snow, or cracking in the new snow, move to simple terrain less than 30 degrees and avoid traveling underneath avalanche paths.
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It remains possible to trigger a wind slab today near and above the treeline on slopes > 30 degrees. Looks for clues of instability such as shooting cracks, freshly developed cornices, large wind pillows, and dunes.
It remains possible to trigger a deep persistent slab- especially in areas that hold a shallower snowpack. This avalanche problem type is unpredictable and most likely unsurvivable. You will likely not see clues to this monster from the snowpack surface, but instead must rely on looking at the structure of the snowpack all the way to the ground! Where there is a dense slab of snow overlying weak sugar snow near the ground, this avalanche problem remains possible. The Christmas rain crust is buried around 1.5-3' from the surface and is most sensitive where weak sugar snow surrounds it or is sandwiched between it. An avalanche failing on this weak layer could potentially step down into the very weak snow near the ground. Conservative terrain selection remains critical. Stick to slopes less than 30 degrees to decrease your chances of triggering one of these monsters.
Today's benign weather should reduce the chances of human-triggered avalanches. Unfortunately our main concern today will be weak snow buried 1-3' in the snowpack around the Christmas Rain Crust. This Persistent Problem we have been talking about for weeks now doesn't go away overnight and is still producing results in snowpack tests. You can read some recent observations from the Northern Wallowas here and here.
If you really want to know what's going on with this layer in the snowpack, get out you shovel and do some tests. Regardless of your results, our forecasting team is still using a guarded approach to traveling in avalanche terrain. You may see skiers and riders successfully traveling in terrain >30 degrees. This can result in a confirmation bias, that the snowpack is more stable than we are reporting. In reality, if everyone started teeing off and going "open season" someone would very likely find the needle in the haystack and produce a large to very large avalanche. Continue to remain patient with our snowpack, and live to ride another day.
Thank you for your recent observations! Continue to submit your photos, videos, and observations from traveling in the mountains here.
