Boletín de aludes

South Rockies

Jan 28 – 30, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Archivado · caducó 15 years ago

Peligro de aludes

Mon
Tue
Alta montaña
3 · Notable
Límite del bosque
2 · Moderado
Bajo el límite
2 · Moderado
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Problemas de aludes

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alta montaña
    • Límite del bosque
    • Bajo el límite del bosque
    Probabilidad
    Possible - Likely
    Tamaño
    1–4
    Wind slabs will become an issue as strong to extreme winds go to work on the new snow. Expect wind slabs up to 3x the total snowfall. If it snows 10 cm as forecasted, there is potential for 30 cm wind slabs in lee terrain Sunday.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alta montaña
    • Límite del bosque
    • Bajo el límite del bosque
    Probabilidad
    Likely - Very Likely
    Tamaño
    1–3
    Slab formation will depend on the amount of new snow the region receives. The most current forecast available at time of writing called for 10 cm. Carefully watch snow totals and manage the hazard accordingly.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

For better or worse, weather models are far from perfect. They have a particularly tough time with situations like the one we're in now. The models call for rapidly changing freezing levels, strong to extreme winds out of the SW and uncertain precip amounts. My best guess for the So. Rockies is 10 cm of snow. The caveat is that there could be some upslope action Sunday as the storm exists to the east. Time will tell. Freezing levels will spike Sunday and may rise as high as 1800m. Cooling will build in Monday and then Tuesday looks to be fairly dry. This is all fine & good, but I must admit that my confidence in any model is quite low for the short term, so, take this weather forecast with a grain of salt and be ready for rapidly changing conditions.

Avalanche Summary

Our field team was out in the region Thursday investigating a slide that ran full path. This avalanche path has a SE facing start zone that had been crossloaded by the recent westerly winds. A wind pillow failed high on the slope triggering a size 3 avalanche with a crown as deep as 85 cm. The likely culprit is a crust/facet combo from mid-December. Very little avalanche activity was reported or observed on Saturday

Snowpack Summary

Last week 40-60cm of snow formed soft slabs over a crust/facet/surface hoar combo which has settled remarkably quickly.Deeper in the snowpack, a surface hoar layer buried in early December remains a concern, as avalanches triggered on this layer would be destructive. There may have been releases on this layer post storm but at this time nothing has been reported. It should be noted that basal facets exist in many parts of the region too. Facets sandwiched between two firm layers in the top metre of the snowpack are being monitored in the south-east.

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