Northern New Mexico

New snow and wind have created storm slabs, especially near and above treeline where winds have drifted snow. Storm slabs have formed on a variety of different surfaces and may not be bonding well to old snow interface.  The most dangerous slopes will be where you find over 10 inches of new snow.  Triggering a smaller avalanche on the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers. Faceted crusts and buried near surface facets from February and early March are widespread and found in the upper portions of the snowpack. These avalanches could break widely across the slope and may break well above you. Deeper down in the snowpack, facets, and depth hoar continue to linger in shallow snowpacks and would produce a large avalanche that could take with it most of the season's snowpack.  Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered slopes will provide safer skiing and riding options today.      

So far it's been somewhat of a dud of a storm, as it seems like it's snowing everywhere around us but not in our range. Things will hopefully change later today and tomorrow with a foot plus of snow forecasted and models in better agreement with this third part of a storm from a cut-off low that is parked to our east. Storm totals so far range anywhere from 4 to 10 inches depending on where you are in the range. Red River is reporting 10 inches so there may be more snow on the northern side of the forecast area. This prolonged storm has brought incremental loading with no singular event providing a big wallop, but in totality, storm totals will start to add up by Monday.  The National Weather Service has us under another Winter Storm Warning today and tomorrow with snow picking up this afternoon. As we've seen from the last couple of days there are a lot of dynamics at play with this system as to where snow will fall so we'll keep our fingers crossed that we get favored with this next round of snow showers.       

New snow concerns will be the most obvious avalanche problem and we expect to find more reactive storm slabs near and above treeline, where moderate to strong winds have been drifting snow into stiffer more cohesive slabs. These slabs may fail at the old snow interface on slick smooth crusts on solar aspects or near-surface facets on wind-sheltered northerly aspects. These avalanches would be small but could step down into weak layers in the top 1 to 2 feet of the snowpack. In more wind-sheltered terrain, we were finding just loose snow that was easy to push and run on crusts.   

The main persistent weak layers of concern are buried near surface facets and faceted crusts in the upper portions of the snowpack that formed during the dry periods at the middle to end of February and early March. These layers are widespread across most aspects and all elevations. These weak layers have been producing easy results in extended column tests with planar failures.  We haven't been observing cracking and collapsing in travels, but with additional loading and slab development, these warning signs may become more present.  Even if you don't observe cracking and collapsing, take the time to dig a pit on the slope you plan to play on to identify if these weak layers are present. 

Deeper down in the snowpack, the early January drought facet layer and depth hoar near the ground continue to remain present in shallow snowpacks but have been lying dormant as we haven't seen a significant loading event in over a month.  These layers may become more reactive with loading and slab formation, but it's hard to gauge how much it will take.  This prolonged storm will be incrementally loading slopes through Wednesday so we could see these layers become more problematic this weekend as snow continues to accumulate. An avalanche that fails on these weak layers would be large potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.   

The skiing and riding have really improved and should only continue to get better in the next couple of days with more snow in the forecast into Wednesday. If you are getting out in the backcountry, continue to assess each slope individually and expect changing and increasing avalanche danger as snowfall picks up.