West Slopes South

The snowpack is in a fairly predictable melt-freeze cycle. Expect firm, slick surfaces in the morning and slightly softer snow on sunny slopes in the afternoon. Fortunately, this pattern has resulted in minimal avalanche concerns.

If it’s not going to snow, might as well be sunny. We’ve been stuck in a persistent weather pattern for almost a week now. Warm sunny days help the snow surface soften and become wet. Then long clear nights allow it to freeze solid, even as air temperatures remain above 32F. This has resulted in generally safe avalanche conditions. Even still, don’t see Low Danger simply as a green light. A cornice could fall, snow may shed from rocks, or you might push a small pile of wet snow in the afternoon. All of these avalanches seem very unlikely, but pay attention to the snow and terrain around you. If conditions don’t line up with what you expect, stop and reevaluate. 

The snow could be incredibly slick and icy to start the day. Long, uncontrollable falls are possible. Steep sunny slopes should soften, but areas in the shade might stay locked up all day. 

It’s been a warm, sunny week. Camp Muir on Mt Rainier (10,100ft) hit 44 F on Saturday, and many weather stations haven’t dipped below freezing since last weekend! While the sunshine has been nice, it’s taken its toll on the snowpack. Some locations lost nearly ⅓ of their depth between settlement and melt. 

At lower elevations and on southerly slopes its particularly ugly. Bare ground, open creeks, random holes, and countless trees/bushes continue to make travel hard. Between the icy slopes and all the obstacles, travel hazards could be the greatest danger on Sunday.