A series of storms will affect the region starting Saturday evening. Although recent models have backed off the forecast snowfall amounts, the avalanche hazard will rise into Sunday and may increase further into the start of the week.
If more snow arrives than has been forecast expect the hazard to increase rapidly.
A combination of older stubborn wind slabs and newly forming slabs overlie a heavily faceted upper snowpack. As new snow accumulates and strong winds continue, we expect this issue to become more reactive.
Wind speeds are expected to stay in the strong range Sunday. We anticipate this will trigger the heavily faceted upper snowpack, leading to loose dry avalanche activity in steep terrain. At low elevations. expect loose wet activity.
Another close call to the north of Golden occurred Friday. Skiers triggered a sz 2 slab at 2150m 30cm deep and 30m wide on a west aspect that buried one skier.
A fatal avalanche occurred south of Golden on Monday. A small windslab on a north aspect at 2300 m carried one person a long way (1000 m) down a steep, confined gully with many terrain obstacles.
We are anticipating an avalanche cycle starting Saturday night with the incoming storms.
The new snow will bury a significant drought layer Saturday. Widespread surface faceting is the dominant condition with extensive wind effect found in the alpine. Sun crusts have formed on steep solar slopes and surface hoar has developed in sheltered areas.
The mid and lower snowpack remains well-settled, with tree-line snow depths ranging from 120cm to 180cm.
A warm front will pass over the region late Saturday afternoon. We expect 5-15cm overnight with continued strong SW winds in the alpine. Freezing levels will drop from near 2000m to valley bottom.
Sunday morning a cold front will pass. Another 5cm of snow is expected by mid day as freezing levels return to around 2000m.
The next system is expected Sunday overnight.
