We are teetering between Considerable and High in the alpine. Wind and temperature are the factors at play. Watch warming, sun exposure and fresh windloading VERY carefully. Human triggering is a major concern.
The Ghost area is included in the Special Public Avalanche Warning. Warming may trigger windslabs and cornice failure. Avoid overhead terrain.
A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect and has been extended. Click the red SPAW link for details.
New slabs extend well below ridge lines. Expect crossloading in most features. Cornice failures may also trigger this layer.
This layer is breaking down at the upper limits. At 2250m it is much weaker than last week.
Avalanches may step down to the weaker deep basal layers. If this layer is involved, expect full path avalanches.
Less natural activity today. Only a few small pockets that released, likely due to sun exposure.
Winds were stronger than expected today. Lots of transport at ridgetop, and even a few "snow devils" mid slope. Expect windloading to continue tonight. Today, near Tent Ridge we encountered fresh windslabs at 2300m; a full 60m below ridgeline. They were significant enough to call an early end to our day. At treeline, the upper 60-70cm is well settled. Beneath that the deeper layers are the opposite, loose and weak. The Feb 2 crust is continuing to break down and become a weak triggering layer.
Tomorrow will be much warmer than the last few days. The warm air moved into the area earlier than expected, so expect forecasted highs be a bit less than actual. Tomorrow's predicted high is -2 for 2200m. Skies will be clear enough for the sun to warm the air, and snow. Winds will also pick up, with ridgetop speeds hovering around the 40km/hr mark. No snow for tomorrow, but flurries may start in the evening.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
