Winds are expected to pick up the next few days which will likely create new wind slabs in lee features. Avalanche and riding conditions will depend largely on what the wind does. Our neighbors to the south have been seeing avalanches on the October crust, so its a good time to stay vigilant.
Be mindful of newly formed windslabs if the wind picks up. Older windslabs are also still present and could be sitting on a crust or facets, which may increase their potential for triggering.
The Oct 18 crust is found just above the ground with weak facets above and below it. There’s uncertainty around its distribution and triggerability. More activity has been observed to the south of JNP, but limited observations make it hard to predict when and where it may be a problem.
Several loose dry avalanches were observed beside the highway on Friday.
Ski hills to the south of the park have observed several natural and explosive triggered avalanches up to size 2 on the October crust at the bottom of the snowpack.
10-15 cm of of recent storm snow sits on old windslabs and a faceted midpack. There is a thin crust 20-30cm below the surface, as well as a notable 5-15 cm thick crust from October near the base of the snowpack, surrounded by facets above and below. There is a lot of uncertainty about what it will take to trigger this layer.
Snow depth at Treeline is approximately 70 cm tapering off rapidly below. In the Alpine there is around 80 cm with variability due to wind redistributing the snow
Thursday
4cm of new snow expected. Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries. Alpine temperature: Low -13 °C, High -10 °C. Ridge winds from the southwest: 10-30 km/h.
Friday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Trace precipitation. Alpine temperature: Low -14 °C, High -11 °C. 15-35 km/h ridgetop winds out of the southwest
