Convective snow is adding up at treeline. Avalanche Danger is rated as Moderate but the snowpack this season is one not to be trusted due to its complex series of crusts and shallow areas. When the snowpack is complex, look for terrain that isn't. Northen aspects are giving the best ski quality.
With up to 30cm of recent snow in alpine areas keep a keen eye out for windslabs along ridgelines. Cracking or a "Cakey" feel indicate the snowpack is reactive to loads such as a skier.
The Feb crust has been the main bed surface for many avalanches this winter. Slopes and features that have not slid should be treated cautiously or just avoided. Dig and look.
Facets near the base of the snowpack may be triggered from thin areas. Low probability, high consequence avalanches should be in your mind.
A few loose dry avalanches have been observed over the past 24hrs from steep unskiable terrain.
Up to 20cm of snow has fallen at treeline over the past 24hrs and another 5-10cm is forecast overnight. This new snow is overlying a variety of surfaces from temperature crusts on solar aspects to dry snow on polar aspects. Winds have been in to 20-30km/hr range out of the SW so we have seen some windslab development in the alpine and isolated areas at treeline. Evaluate the bond with the new snow and the underlying crust before committing into a feature. While we have seen the February crust become less reactive its still a concern and worth a dig to see what its doing. Thin weak areas have also been the cause of at least one skier sz 3 accidental avalanche that triggered the deep persistent slab layers near ground. Forecasters have low confidence in any features that have not slid yet this season. Moderate danger means Human triggered avalanches are possible.
When the sun comes out and temperatures warm up, expect avalanche danger to increase. Especially on solar aspects in thin steep rocky terrain. Start early these days and be done early before the heat arrives. Plan your tour to avoid solar aspects later in the day and think about slopes in the sun first thing in the morning when you are in the cool valley floor.
An additional 5-10cm of snow is forecast overnight with continued light winds out of the west. The sky will be a mix of sun and cloud with temperatures around -4C. Be aware that when the sun comes out it packs a punch! Stability will quickly deteriorate on solar aspects when the sun comes out. These effects will me most apparent in thin rocky terrain so be sure to think about aspect at this time of year as well as time of day.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
