New snow combined with moderate to strong winds will increase your likelihood of triggering an avalanche today. It remains possible to trigger a very large avalanche on several persistent weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack. If you see signs of instability such as recent avalanches, wind-drifted snow, or cracking in the new snow, move to simple terrain less than 30 degrees and avoid traveling underneath avalanche paths.
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New snow today combined with moderate to strong winds out of the south will continue to build sensitive wind slabs, especially near and above the treeline. Look for clues of wind loading such as smoothly rounded pillows of snow that sound hollow, corniced ridgelines, and trees that have all of the snow blown off of them.
(1/11/2023) Photo: cm
It remains possible to trigger a deep persistent slab- especially in areas that hold a shallower snowpack. This avalanche problem type is unpredictable and most likely unsurvivable. You will likely not see clues to this monster from the snowpack surface, but instead must rely on looking at the structure of the snowpack all the way to the ground! Where there is a dense slab of snow overlying weak sugar snow near the ground, this avalanche problem remains possible. The Christmas rain crust is buried around 1.5-3' from the surface and is most sensitive where weak sugar snow surrounds it or is sandwiched between it. An avalanche failing on this weak layer could potentially step down into the very weak snow near the ground. Conservative terrain selection remains critical. Stick to slopes less than 30 degrees to decrease your chances of triggering one of these monsters.
In addition to the aforementioned avalanche problems, some localized areas of the Northern Wallowas and Elkhorns picked up around 2-4" of new snow yesterday near and above treeline. This snow is most likely "upside down" with less dense snow underneath more dense snow as a result of warming temperatures throughout the day and last night. Quick hand pits will be useful to determine whether you have dense snow over less dense snow. If these conditions exist, storm slabs are likely to be triggered. Look for red flags of instability such as recent avalanches, whumphing or collapsing of the snowpack, and utilize small inconsequential test slopes to test the reactivity of the new snow. With the warmer temperatures yesterday and last night, I wouldn't be surprised to also see small wet loose avalanches at lower elevations today. They will remain likely to be triggered by a rider or machine until our temperatures and freezing levels drop this evening. Look for clues of wet loose activity such as rollerballs and pinwheels of new snow and avoid slopes that are steeper than 35 degrees to decrease your chances of triggering a wet loose avalanche. While they can be relatively benign in open terrain, a small wet loose avalanche above a terrain trap could have more significant consequences.
There's a lot to think about today. When you have uncertainty about the snowpack, the terrain is your answer! Continue to choose slopes less than 30 degrees to decrease your chances of triggering an avalanche. Keep it simple- there is plenty of fun terrain to play in that isn't capable of avalanching. If you don't walk through the casino door, you can't lose.
Thank you for your recent observations! Continue to submit your photos, videos, and observations from traveling in the mountains here.
