West Slopes North

 Traveling on firm, icy snow on crusted aspects will be the main challenge. Cracks in the slope or buckling snow highlight slopes that might still have a glide avalanche concern. A much-anticipated storm will dramatically increase avalanche danger for Friday and the weekend.

Thursday will be the literal calm before the storm. With plenty of weak snow in the upper pack, Thursday is a critical day to submit your observations to NWAC. We anticipate a significant winter storm to hit the West North beginning Thursday night and an accompanied sharp rise in avalanche danger through Friday.

NWAC forecasters were pleasantly surprised by the riding conditions in the Canyon Creek zone on Wednesday. The upper 4" of snow softened nicely on sun-soaked aspects and is likely to refreeze into a granular (rather than slick) interface. Shaded aspects below 5000 ft generally had surface hoar up to 2" in diameter on the snow surface. Above 5000 ft, the snow surface on these aspects consists of old wind skin that varies in depth and may either be supportable or unsupportable. None of this old wind redistribution remains reactive, and there were no identifiable avalanche concerns.

Although the NWAC forecasters didn't find glide avalanches to be a problem around Canyon Creek on Thursday, this problem can be terrain-specific. On sun-drenched aspects, meltwater may still be draining the snowpack and could be lubricating the underlying bedrock or grassy slopes. If you see a brown frown or buckling snow on a steep rocky outcrop, or a smooth grassy/bedrock slope, then give the irregularity some extra space on the slope below. The glide problem last cropped up on Tuesday with a size 1.5 glide avalanche inbounds at Mt Baker; there was also reported activity on steep rocky faces near Huntoon Point.

Additional things to consider during the latter stages of the January drought:

• Firm crusts will present more of a challenge as temperatures drop on Thursday. Give yourself some extra time crossing these slopes. While they are unlikely to be especially slick, a fall or a slide might cause you injury.
• Snow surfaces vary widely between slick crust, wind-affected snow, heavily tracked-out slopes, and even some soft snow in shaded and sheltered terrain. 
• Many people went to the far reaches of the West North zone last weekend, and no wind slabs big enough to be dangerous were reported. It's not without question that you may find one that could get you into trouble if you climb into exposed alpine terrain. Search for pockets of smooth-looking wind slabs and assess for instability before traveling onto steep slopes. The potential for traumatic injury increases above rocks, cliffs, or crevasses in the runout below. 
• Shaded slopes continue to preserve weak, faceted snow and surface hoar. Plenty of facets can be found below the surface on all aspects, often sandwiched between and around crust layers.