Loose Wet
- Alta montaña
- Límite del bosque
- Bajo el límite del bosque
- Probabilidad
- Likely
- Tamaño
- 1–2
The past 3 days were the hottest so far this winter, and overnight temperatures have remained above freezing. The saving grace? The snowpack surface has still been freezing at night due to radiational cooling—a process that requires clear skies. Well, things took a turn for the worse last night. Increasing clouds yesterday evening were like throwing an insulated blanket over our warm, soggy snowpack—not good! With overnight temps staying in the upper-30s to 40 F, I'd expect that the snowpack this morning will have a surface shell no thicker than your Easter eggs.
The past few days of hot temps have already increased the meltwater within the snowpack (read the Forecast Discussion below). A warm, cloudy night followed by more sunshine and heat today could be the nail in the coffin for our soggy snowpack. Expect the chance of both natural and triggered wet slides to increase quickly today. Many steep, sunny slopes have saturated snow to the ground, and the potential exists for large, dangerous wet slides gouging deeper into the snowpack.
If you'd rather spend your Easter in wet, sloppy snow than looking for baskets hidden by an egg-laying rabbit and gorging yourself on Cadbury® chocolate eggs—then hop to it. I'd look for some way to get to upper-elevation, northerly-facing terrain (the only place you'll find dry snow) without traveling on or under steep slopes with a wet snowpack. We can't rule out the possibility of wet slab avalanches—especially today—and this necessitates a more conservative approach to managing the wet snow problem.
ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION - WET SLABS: Wet slab avalanches are tough to predict, but we do know they are more likely when 1) Well-defined weak layers exist in the snowpack, and 2) During prolonged warm weather with little to no overnight freezing. Sound familiar? Spring doesn't always lead to a predictably stable snowpack (watch video from Galena Summit on Friday). Although wet slabs aren't likely, they should factor into your plans during this and subsequent warming events this spring. This isn't the year to be playing in steep, consequential avalanche terrain after little to no overnight freeze, and make sure to give yourself an extra margin of safety to be out of harm's way before the surface gets wet and mushy.
(4/4/2021) Several days of the winter's hottest weather were followed by a warm, cloudy night last night. With little to no freeze of the snowpack overnight, wet snow conditions will quickly become dangerous today as the clouds clear and the temps rise.