The snowpack has more than doubled itself since the start of December. A Natural avalanche cycle has occurred in all avalanche terrain and is now primed for human triggering. Large full path avalanches are possible and will easily reach into below treeline elevations. Stick to low angle supported terrain with no over head until conditions improve.
This wind slab problem covers two wind slab problems. 40-60cm of storm snow is being re-distributed into a surface wind slab. If this is triggered, there is a strong likelyhood to trigger a recently buried wind slab that is up to 60-80cm deep
Avalanches initiated in the surface wind slab will likely trigger this deeper instability. Large and destructive avalanches are possible.
Rapid loading from the recent storm along with continued strong winds
A field team was out along the spray today and walked in to Commonwealth valley. No new avalanches were observed. Significant evidence of previous cycle in the last 72 hours is evident in most avalanche terrain.
This last storm has given us between 50-70cm of snow in the last 4 days. Extensive wind slabs can be found in the Alpine and lee features at treeline. These wind slabs are likely to be reactive to skier traffic. A previous wind slab from Monday can be found down about 50-80cm and was sitting on a softer layer of decomposed crystals that should be investigated for its reactivity. The November crust is now down 100+cm. Any avalanche triggered in the upper snowpack has a strong likelihood to step down to deeper instabilities. Now is a time to avoid exposure to avalanche terrain and give time for the snowpack to settle and stabilize.
Some forecasts are calling for varying amounts of snow on Saturday. 2-12cm possible.
The winds will continue in the strong range (60km/h) out of the West at ridgetop. However lower down in elevation winds will be much lighter
Overnight low temp of -16 warming through the day to -11
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
