San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Avalanches are unlikely throughout the San Francisco Peaks, but small releases are still possible in isolated terrain features, such as wet loose avalanches on steep south facing terrain at all elevations.  As temperatures warm, isolated wind drifts near exposed ridgelines will become more sensitive to triggering and may receive a couple of inches of fresh deposition as winds increase throughout the day.   Spring conditions are settling into the Peaks, but the snowpack has yet to become isothermic.  Colder temperatures will keep the avalanche hazard steady today.

Spring weather has arrived on the San Francisco Peaks.  The warming temperatures over the last two days were preceded by a significant wind event on Tuesday.  This wind event once again redistributed snow and changed the surface conditions on many slopes. Numerous skin and ski tracks were erased or turned into anti-tracks.  On northwest facing slopes, the wind deposited additional snow and erased boot packs and skin tracks on this aspect specific terrain.  Slick and wind hardened snow replaced the previous evidence of skier and rider traffic.  On generally east-facing slopes, the northeast aspects received additional snow, while on other aspects, the wind removed approximately 3-4" of snow.  North facing slopes are still holding cold and soft snow.  West facing slopes are skiing the most variable with microchanges in surface conditions, making for hard to balance turns.  East and north slopes offer more uniform conditions.  

The avalanche hazard today is low, but this does not mean that avalanches are impossible.  Wet loose avalanches on south facing slopes will be the main concern for today.  These avalanches will be small, likely running at most a hundred to two hundred vertical feet on large open slopes and resulting in a few inches of aggregation of snow in run-out zones.  At lower treed elevations small south facing pockets of open terrain could also be subject to these wet loose slides.  While these avalanches will not bury you, they could result in injury, especially if any terrain features are involved.  If conditions are soft or slushy and you notice poor bonding between the surface layer and a previous melt-freeze or wind crust a couple of inches below, be aware that a wet loose release could be possible.  Roller balls or small pieces of debris rolling down slopes are a good indicator that a wet loose avalanche could occur.  These wet loose avalanches are very temperature and time dependent.  Today they will be most likely on south facing slopes in the mid-afternoon when temperatures reach their peak.

Small avalanches are also possible in wind drifted snow at the top of steep chutes and avalanche paths.  These avalanches should be very small but will become increasingly possible as temperatures warm.  Most of these wind slabs were unreactive yesterday, but don't let them catch you off guard on the top of steep terrain or above rocks and cliffs.  By this afternoon, winds are expected to be moderate to high.  There is little snow available for transport except on some north facing slopes.  It could be that some old wind slabs receive new deposition today, creating 3-4" of wind slab on top of existing consolidated drifts or on the surface of frozen snow.  If this is the case, these wind slabs could release as small slides with the added weight of a skier or rider.  Look for blowing snow as a sign that wind slabs could be possible at the tops of steep chutes and gullies, and watch for any signs of instability such as cracking or shearing.  

In general the mountain is holding snow well.  Cold temperatures over the next few days and lower winds will help retain the snowpack.  Warm temperatures in combination with wind are also ideal conditions for sublimation, so hopefully, temperatures stay cool and the winds low enough to help ring in a period of spring skiing.  Snow depths on south facing slopes are averaging between 110 and 130 cms.  On ridglines and south and west facing slopes, exposed rocks are acting as thermal sources, and melting is spreading around these features.  Efficient travel will not last much longer with these trends, so in the coming days, be prepared to skin over rock and gravel or be in and out of your equipment.  Numerous lines still exist from the Humphrey's Trail saddle into the ski area.  This is a rarity for this time of year and is making for convenient skiing conditions.  

Most of the mountain is in a melt-freeze spring cycle.  If you are headed out early, ski and splitboard crampons are recommended.  Until these slopes begin to melt, they are icy and any slip could result in a significant fall.  Time your tours appropriately if you are unprepared for hard conditions.  Yesterday, most slopes of east, south and west aspects were softened by 11:30 AM.  

Currently, the SNOTEL site in Snowslide Canyon is nearly 150% of the median snow water equivalent for this time of year. Snow depths in the inner basin near treeline are averaging around 200 cm.  This year, spring powder keeps the snowpack deep at higher elevations, and with this bonus comes increased avalanche danger. Keep a watchful eye, and don't let the last couple of days of spring-like weather lull you into a false sense of security.  

Recent snowpits can be found at https://snowpilot.org/snowpits/query?field_loaction_tid=4.

Recent observations can be found here.

Congratulations to the winners of the Mikee Linville Power Pass raffle and Spark R&D Spintboard bindings bid!  Thank you to all who entered the raffle and bid, and thank you for supporting the avalanche scholarship program!