Boletín de aludes

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Peligro de aludes

Wed
Alta montaña
2 · Moderado
Límite del bosque
2 · Moderado
Bajo el límite
1 · Débil
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Desactualizado: este boletín caducó 6 years ago. Estás viendo condiciones pasadas, no el boletín vigente.

Lo esencial

You are most likely to trigger an avalanche on steep slopes where the wind has helped to stiffen the snow. These slides will break 8-20" down from the snow surface on a thick layer of weak snow. Avalanches are also possible in terrain that is sheltered from the wind. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. 

Problemas de aludes

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta montaña
    • Límite del bosque
    • Bajo el límite del bosque
    Probabilidad
    Possible
    Tamaño
    1–2

    The snowpack in this zone is most similar to the snowpack in the Galena Summit and Eastern Mountains Zone. This weekend, skiers triggered 3 (reported) avalanches in the Galena Summit area, including one that resulted in a partial burial. You can find more information about each of these slides here, here, and here. All 3 avalanches failed on the weak snow that is buried 8-20" deep in this zone. In addition to these human-triggered avalanches, several large, natural avalanches failed in the Smoky Mountains just north of this zone during the storm on Saturday (photo at right). Triggering an avalanche involving this snow remains a very real possibility today. This will be most likely on wind loaded slopes but is possible in terrain sheltered from the wind as well.

    Your best bet for managing this problem is to avoid steep slopes, particularly those with recent and past wind loading. Don't lose sight of what is above you. Given the nature of our snowpack, remotely triggering an avalanche from below, above, and to the sides of steeper slopes is a possibility. Be aware of the terrain you are in and the terrain you are exposed to from above. 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION - WIND SLABSSaturday's storm graced us with 3-8" of low-density snow in this zone. In the days since, periods of increased wind built isolated slabs in exposed terrain. Wind speeds will ramp up again today, creating another batch of slabs. Though small in size, these may be touchy and will be adding stress to the weak snow described above. If you trigger one of these wind slabs it may be able to "step-down" to the layer of weak snow below, creating a much larger and more dangerous avalanche. 

    (12/27/2020) This avalanche failed at 9,500-9,900' on a E-NE facing slope at the head of Owl Creek in the Smoky Mountains. It appears to have released near the end of the storm on Saturday, 12/26.

Avalanche Discussion

If you are reading the Forecast regularly, you are probably noticing that the danger is gradually decreasing. Continue reading to better understand why and what you should do about it:

The avalanche danger scale is based primarily on the likelihood and size of potential avalanches. It attempts to simplify the infinite complexities of the backcountry environment into 5 danger levels. During periods of HIGH and LOWdanger, the message is pretty simple. At CONSIDERABLE, and particularly MODERATE danger, the message is significantly more nuanced. Right now, the likelihood of triggering avalanches is decreasing, but it remains a real possibility. Fortunately, the danger scale isn't the only tool we have available to us to help communicate hazards about the backcountry environment. An equally important tool are what we call the Avalanche Problems. 

Different Avalanche Problems require different management strategies. Persistent Slab problems (what we have now) are among the most difficult and frustrating to deal with. I feel this way both as an avalanche forecaster and an avid backcountry traveler. Trust me, there is nothing that I love more than skiing down steep, snow-covered mountains (read, "avalanche terrain"). Unfortunately, the weak layers that create these types of problems can be very slow to gain strength and often produce avalanches that fail in surprising ways. Slides may wrap around terrain features that usually confine simpler types of avalanches and they may be triggered remotely—from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. 

When I sit down in the morning to write my Forecasts, I am trying to give you an accurate picture of the snowpack that you can use to make your decisions in the mountains. Today, I want you to know that the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is (very slowly) decreasing, but that the consequence aren't. And even though I can say with confidence that the likelihood is decreasing, I can't point to any individual slope and tell you if it will or will not avalanche. Nobody can. That is part of what makes dealing with Persistent Slab problems so challenging. This uncertainty has kept me and many very experienced local riders and skiers from rolling the dice in avalanche terrain.

As the danger drops my suggestion to you remains the same. Do I want you to travel cautiously and conservatively in the mountains again today? Yes. Will I be doing the same? Yes. 

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