Northwest Mountains

An Avalanche Watch is in place with the potential for very dangerous conditions to develop on Saturday.  On Friday, you could trigger an avalanche where the snowpack is shallower in depth from wind erosion or on rocky slopes.  Aspects of concern face west through north through east with far less concern on sunny slopes as thick crusts recently formed.  You are less likely to trigger an avalanche where the snowpack is thicker, around 5 feet or more, and consistent in depth.  Friday's snowfall totals range from 3 to 6 inches, not enough to create a new avalanche problem, however, the new snow is landing on fragile weak layers.  If you find 8 inches or more of new or wind-blown snow expect avalanche conditions to be worsening.

Winter's back!  A potent storm began impacting Colorado early this morning.  Only a trace of new snow is on the ground as of 6 am, but light snowfall is expected to continue all day before dramatically increasing in intensity tonight.  Expect avalanche hazards to change as snowfall stacks up over the next 48 hours.

For the first half of Friday, hazards will be similar to the past week.  Your primary concern will be triggering an avalanche that breaks on weak layers lower in the snowpack where the slabs becomes thinner.  In the Northwest Mountains and Southeast Mountains, this problem is more likely to be triggered on slopes with wind erosion where slabs are thinner or on very rocky slopes where trigger points are more likely encountered.  Some portions of the Southeast Mountains at low elevations have snowpack depths around 3 feet deep; this makes it easier for you to trigger an avalanche as slabs are thinner and softer.  The warm period earlier this week reduced the number of slopes where you might trigger an avalanche.  Supportive crust formed on many sunny slopes (recent observation) and greatly diminished the chance for you to trigger an avalanche where you find thick crusts at or just below the snow surface.  This leaves terrain facing west through north through east as the most likely aspects. 

This afternoon, there is a chance for avalanche conditions to worsen and a new avalanche problem to form if snowfall exceeds forecasted amounts.  The incoming storm will accumulate above crusts on sunny slopes and surface hoar and facets on northerly terrain.  Take a look at this video to see the old snow surface.  Keep a close eye on the depth of new snow this afternoon and if you find about 8 inches or more you may encounter a new slab avalanche problem in the upper snowpack.  Northerly slopes likely become problematic first as weak layers are quite fragile and won't tolerate a new load.  Look for cracking or collapsing to help clue you into this developing new problem in the upper snowpack.  

If the weather forecast verifies for Friday night and Saturday expect natural avalanche activity and easy-to-trigger avalanche conditions on Saturday.  Avalanche problems will involve the new snow and the potential for slides to break deeper in the snowpack and create large to very large avalanches.  Time will tell how this storm plays out but be prepared for very dangerous conditions to potentially develop on Saturday. 

Events: Our next Fireside Chat is this Sunday, February 4 at 6 p.m. at High Alpine Brewing Company in Gunnison. A local snowmobiler will talk about his experience with an avalanche burial and rescue while snowmobiling last year.