The avalanche danger will rise to Moderate during daylight hours and accelerate to Considerable overnight. Today's strong southwest winds will form small wind slabs in wind drifted terrain at higher elevations. Look for active wind loading and fresh drifts to identify features of concern. As snowfall ramps up overnight, avalanche concerns will become larger and more widespread. Natural avalanches will become a threat by tomorrow.
Increasing southwest winds today will drift the few inches of recent snow into small wind slabs in leeward terrain. Blowing snow and thicker drifts should clue you into potential pockets of instability. Use extra caution if you see cracking or drifted snow above consequential terrain. Choose wind protected snow to avoid the hazard.
A few tweaks to today's forecast and danger, which describes conditions during the daylight hours. Observers yesterday reported more fresh snow than expected (up to 3" near Kebler Pass and 4" near Yule Pass). We're bumping today's avalanche danger to Moderate to account for fresh wind slabs developing throughout the day. Increasing southwest winds will be drifting the snow where there's soft snow to blow around, and loading it below ridges and rollovers that face north to east. There's more snow available for transport in the Northwest Mountains, so the danger spans into more terrain features. Facet sluffs remain a relatively small concern in wind-sheltered locations.
Today's increasing hazards are just a quick teaser. The feature presentation shows up tonight! Heavy snowfall and moderate to strong winds will be overloading a very fragile snowpack that is begging for failure. A natural cycle is expected to begin overnight; destructive sizes will be growing larger into tomorrow. If snowfall forecasts verify, Tuesday will bring a cycle of D1 to D2 slab avalanches and very sensitive human triggering. The danger will be more acute in the snowfall-favored Northwest Mountains, where the danger could reach HIGH by Tuesday. Thus, an Avalanche Watch is in effect today. We are all thrilled to see snow on the way. However, if this storm delivers as promised, it's time to take a big step back with your terrain selection and strategic mindset.
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