The lower half of the snowpack is still weak, and human triggering of large, destructive avalanches is still possible. Despite the MODERATE hazard rating, conservative terrain selection is still critical.
If triggered the persistent slab is very likely to step down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack. Pay close attention at treeline where this layer is more commonly found.
Snowpack tests continue to indicate that human triggering of the deeper weak layers is a real possibility. Shallow rocky areas are particularly susceptible.
One size 2 slab was observed Saturday on the SE aspect of Hero's Knob at 2100m, possibly triggered by the warm temps. Nothing new was observed on Sunday.
A couple of cm's of fresh snow overlies a very thin crust, but thankfully this crust disappears above 1900 to 2000m depending on the valley. A buried layer of surface hoar down 15 to 30cm at treeline continues to produce shears, but the main concern in the snowpack is the persistent moderate shears failing down 70 to 80cm in the mid-November facets. The lower half of the snowpack remains very weak, and any avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack will likely step down to the lower weaknesses. Thin and rocky areas are of particular concern for triggering the deeper weak layers. Below 2100m the snowpack does not support the weight of a skier if you leave an established skin track.
Monday will be mainly cloudy with very light flurries in the morning. Snow accumulations should be near 2cm. Temps will climb to -5C by midday. Winds will be moderate from the SW, decreasing to light by late morning.
Tuesday will be cloudy and a little cooler.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
