Northwest Mountains

Expect to encounter sensitive avalanche conditions, particularly on the northern half of the compass.  Observers continue to trigger avalanches where the recent storm snow fell on weak facets or thin crusts (Schuylkill Ridge, Anthracite Range).  Conditions are more dangerous near and above treeline, where slabs are thicker, can break wider, and be remotely triggered.  You can reduce risk by sticking to lower-angled slopes without steep terrain directly above or by choosing wind-protected southerly slopes where problematic weak layers are less common.

The prolonged February dry spell is not tolerating the recent loading event.  The evidence of natural and human-triggered avalanches clearly indicates a problematic snowpack on the northern half of the compass.  Conditions are the most dangerous, as slabs are bigger, in areas to the west and north of town, and on wind-drifted features.  To get an unambiguous perspective on conditions, check out these two videos from Schuylkill Ridge or this video from the Marble side.  The observations page has multiple human-triggered slides by a handful of different parties over the past few days.  The simplest solution to the current persistent slab problem is to seek out lower-angled slopes or stick to wind-sheltered southerly terrain.

In today's products, we rolled the previous storm slab problem into the persistent slab problem, as issues with the new/old interface will last well into the future, given the incredibly weak nature of the February drought layer.  Although most avalanche activity is expected to fail on the February drought layer, there is a small chance for avalanches to break deeper on older weak layers.  An example of this potentially deeper-breaking avalanche occurred in the Anthracite Range on Friday.  Although this type of slide is not particularly likely at the moment, it may be a harbinger of things to come next week as more snowfall arrives.

Two additional factors may impact conditions this weekend.  First, the wind has been generally light with this recent storm system.  A small uptick in wind at Cinnamon and Jan P weather stations suggests a small amount of wind loading overnight.  Given the sensitivity of the February drought layer, a bit of wind loading could produce a few natural avalanches, so steer clear of any terrain with active wind loading.  Secondly, clear skies and rising temperatures may warm southerly-facing terrain just enough to produce a few loose avalanches.  Temperatures appear cool enough to limit this activity on Saturday, but keep an eye on the wetting snow surface if you travel on steep southerly terrain this weekend.