Northern New Mexico

With last night's storm underproducing the main concern today is a persistent slab avalanche problem that exists on northwest through east aspects near and above treeline. Hard slabs resting over weak faceted snow still provide us with the recipe for producing avalanches. These avalanches still have the potential to be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. Also, if you're planning on traveling above treeline, keep an eye out for areas where the wind may have drifted snow into deeper pockets. Near-surface facets sit just under a thin wind slab formed on Jan 5 and this layer may be sensitive to even minor loading.  Avoiding slopes greater than 35 degrees on these aspects and elevations will help mitigate the current hazard.  

The days leading up to last night's storm were full of uncertainty and that stayed true all the way up until the last minute. I sat and watched, much to my disliking, as models continued to progressively downgrade this system's potency over our forecast zone. Ultimately, we received 1 to 2 inches of new snow from around 0.05 to 0.1 inches of water. A pretty big swing and a miss! However, let's move forward, what does that mean for our avalanche danger? Well, 1 to 2 inches of new snow doesn't quite hit the threshold for an increase in avalanche danger so we are back to talking about those old stubborn buried hard slabs resting over faceted snow. 

The last significant loading event our snowpack saw was on Dec 29. That's almost two weeks ago. But the fact remains that we have a strong over weak structure in our snowpack and as long as that persists we will be capable of producing an avalanche. The question is though, how likely are we to trigger one of these avalanches? For now, even with only an inch or two of new snow, we still feel it's possible. Thus, we are still living in the often quite expansive realm of "Moderate" avalanche danger. Don't let your guard down, although winds weren't all that aggressive they were still plenty strong for transporting snow. Keep an eye out for areas where the wind may have drifted snow into deeper pockets. These pockets would be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines above treeline. There is a layer of near-surface facets just below a thin wind slab formed on the surface Jan 5. This layer may be sensitive to even minor loading and as we know small avalanches run the risk of breaking into deeper weak layers creating a larger avalanche. Just something to keep on your radar if you're planning on traveling to the upper elevations today. 

Below treeline, our snowpack is entirely faceted. Stepping out of your skis in this terrain will result in immediately plummeting to the ground. There is certainly no shortage of weak snow to be found here. What we haven't been able to sustain all season long though is a cohesive slab and that's exactly what we lack currently. All season long, anytime we have developed a slab below treeline, the faceting process destroys it nearly as quickly as it was formed. Due to the cohesion-less nature of the snow, you may be able to produce small loose dry snow avalanches in steep terrain features that could sweep you off your feet.