San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

The avalanche danger remains moderate above treeline.  Skiers and riders could trigger large persistent slab avalanches, particularly on north facing terrain, and smaller wind slab avalanches on mostly east and south faces.  Avoid steep wind-loaded starting zones and isolated pockets of wind slabs near ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies.  

It has been nearly a week since the last snowfall, which resulted in our first and only avalanche cycle of the season. To view some of the aftermath and learn more about the size and type of these avalanches, click here.  Since then, the snowpack has become more stable, and the avalanche hazard decreased; however, we're not quite out of the woods just yet.  

Wind slab continues to be a problem, as do the series of persistent weak layers.  These wind slabs are primarily a concern above treeline; however, some were also found at lower elevations where vertical ridges lining chutes and gullies extended into the trees.  In general, cross-loading in these areas was a continued problem.  On Thursday, winds at upper ridgelines gusted as high as 50 mph.  These were generally from the west, but in the inner basin, some winds were blowing upslope, and higher elevation winds were coming from the northwest.  The majority of the wind slab problem is found in isolated pockets on the south side of vertical ridgelines.  Today, expect more moderate winds out of the northwest.  Continued snow transport could make for more easily triggered wind slabs.  These will be small but could partially bury a skier or rider or knock them downslope.  Beware of underlying hazards if crossing any newly formed wind drifts, mounds, or pillows. 

In most locations on the Peaks the persistent weak layers, some of which were failure points during the last storm cycle, have been buried by over a meter of snow.  In areas that haven't slid, these weak layers are supporting the additional load, but the weight of a skier or rider could still trigger a hazardous slab avalanche.  This is especially true in shallow snowpack locations, where the weight of a skier or rider will more highly affect the underlying layers.  In some areas, particularly on N, E, and W facing slopes, we're still facing a low probability but high consequences scenario.  Avoid steep entries to avalanche paths, especially those that have been loaded or are actively being loaded by wind.  In a few sampled locations, the temperature profile and crystal type (rounding facets) suggest that this problem is starting to heal.  However, it may take a couple more weeks of warmer weather and possibly some more snow before it completely abates.

Conditions on the Peaks are highly variable, and numerous aspects and elevations have been affected by both sun and wind.  Most mid-level elevations at nearly all, but south-facing aspects still contain soft snow.  Most south facing slopes are going through melt-freeze cycles and as this warm weather trend continues, some slopes may start to corn up in the afternoon.  Much of the above treeline zone has been impacted by high winds and can boast a seriously slippery or grabby wind crust. The growing distribution of wind and sun crusts may be the future weak layers in the snowpack, but with little to no snow in the immediate forecast, we are likely sitting with what we've got until at least next Wednesday.