Light flurries in the north of the region should give a refresh to wind slab hazards. The situation in the south is more uncertain. Be ready to dial back your terrain selection to manage a more widespread storm slab problem if 20 or more cm of new snow accumulates.
Forecast flurries and elevated winds will add to pockets of wind slab at upper elevations. Be ready to manage a more widespread storm slab problem at all elevations in the south of the region if snowfall exceeds forecast amounts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace to 5 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds, increasing into the morning.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, possibly closer to 15 in the south of the region, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong south winds, continuing overnight. Alpine high temperatures around -7.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong south winds, continuing overnight. Alpine high temperatures around -6.
MONDAY: Cloudy with lingering scattered flurries and a trace to 5 cm of new snow, 3-day snow totals around 15-30 cm, favouring the south of the region. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -8.
It may be possible to trigger small pockets of wind slab at higher elevations. Steep terrain features with no slab may sluff when ridden.
On Tuesday there were a few reports of explosives triggered size 1.5-2 avalanches.
There were a few reports of natural and human triggered dry loose avalanches on Monday.
10-15 cm of new snow, favouring the south of the region, is expected to accumulate by the end of the day on Saturday. This will add to 5-15 cm of recent snow which sits on firm wind affected snow at upper elevations, on surface hoar in some sheltered areas, on a melt-freeze crust below 1600 m, and on a sun crust on south-facing slopes. Recent southeast winds have already redistributed some of this new snow into new wind slabs in leeward terrain.
In the south, the underlying snowpack is well consolidated. In the north, a melt-freeze crust from early December may be found 100 to 200 cm deep. Recent reports suggest that this layer is gaining strength and it has been unreactive in recent weeks.
