We have seen avalanches propagating and travelling longer distances then predicted. A very complex snowpack with many unknowns. A day for simple terrain, and safe choices.
Rain will be heavy this morning, expect a (initially) saturated pack. Weak layers will become lubricated and overloaded. Keep well clear of avalanche run out zones. Be on the lookout for an increase in things like roller balling, pin wheeling. If rain and snow combine, shedding may become a real issue.
Winds have been a gale strength from the western half. Snow has been wet but has been redistributed. More snow is forecast throughout today. Entry points from the ridge-line and complex terrain will be scary places. The pack is complex and very changeable. Add to this elevation and a varying freezing levels, we need to gather more information.
We know there are buried weak layers within the pack. We also know the pack is weak and saturated to ground. The combination is ripe for an increase in wet slab releases. If you see cracks or buckling of the snowpack AVOID. You don't want to get tangled up around these monsters.
Minimal backcountry information over the past 48 hrs. Local ski areas have reported some wet slide activity. Also evidence of avalanches failing on weak layers.
Mother nature isn't done yet. Another brutal rinsing is on the way today, especially this morning. The current snowpack has had a major soaking to around 2200 m. This morning we see another round of rain to high elevations. As temperatures drop so will the snow level. The added weight will be stressing weak areas and adding tension. Winds are still at gale strength, expect scouring and overloading in start zones. Another day of loose wet activity, rafting, pin wheeling and roller-balling. With the possibility of a rotten (isothermic) snowpack looming, concern builds of what strength the snowpack has to remain intact.
Rain and heavy this morning, easing during the afternoon. Winds at gale strength from the NW turning E and easing after lunch. This is the confusing part of our local forecast. The freezing level 1700 m lowering to 1400 m later. However, snow forecast to 800 m. Given the NW nature of the winds I am not sure we will see it this low around our part of the region.
A light re-freeze overnight will be undone by warm rain. Wouldn't hurt to have an ice axe and crampons in your kit at present.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
