Lost Trail backcountry

I'll start with the relatively simple... south aspects were getting lots of sun and warming but a surface melt freeze crust that formed overnight from warming yesterday was slowing the snow from becoming wet. The crust had just started to break down by 3pm and likely never progressed to wet snow hazard today. Tomorrow, the surface crust will be even more stout and I do not anticipate significant wet snow danger. There are a few buried crusts on south aspects, but the facets around them are not reactive or popagating.

Now to the large natural avalanche observed. It was likely triggered by cornice failure due to the warm temperatures and sun. The upper portion of the slab looks to have been recently wind loaded, but the depth of the crown potentially broke out deeper than recent wind loading would produce. Mid slope where it stepped down, the weak layer is unknown. Making this issue tougher to understand is looking at slopes adjacent at the same elevation and aspect. They are covered in ski tracks, with skiers today poking into all sorts of similar terrain with no issues. Reliable witnesses with the Ski Patrol do not believe the avalanche was there yesterday.  A stark reminder that even at low or moderate hazard, all it takes is finding the right trigger to produce a significant avalanche.

Certainly spooky moderate conditions. The question for me moving forward will be is this a dormant avalanche problem that is just starting to become active.