Snow in the forecast for the end of the week! Until then, triggering an avalanche is most likely in wind affected terrain and steep, rocky slopes.
Triggering wind slab avalanches is most likely at higher elevations or cross-loaded areas where the wind has redistributed recent new snow into the lee of terrain features.
The likelihood of triggering a large avalanche on one of the crusts and weak layers in the lower snowpack is gradually reducing, but the consequence of doing so is high.
Tuesday Night: Cloudy with clear breaks. Alpine temperature -8 C. Southwest-west wind 20-35 km/hr.
Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature -6 C. Southwest wind 25-35 km/hr.
Thursday: Cloudy with isolated flurries, trace to 10 cm. Alpine temperature -8. Southwest wind 25-45 km/hr.
Friday: Snow, 15-30 cm. Alpine temperature -2C. Southwest wind 20-40 gusting to 65 km/hr.
Explosives testing was able to trigger a handful of small (size 1) slab avalanches on Tuesday from steep alpine terrain.
Last Saturday, 2 large (size 2) natural storm slab avalanches were reported initiating from steep north-north east aspects in the alpine. Around Fernie, the new snow was reactive to skier tracks.
Wind has redistributed loose snow, and formed wind slabs in alpine terrain and around ridge features. In sheltered areas 30-40 cm of snow from last weekend is gradually settling.
Crust layers from November and October can be found 40-100 cm below the surface. These layers produced large avalanches with explosive triggers around Dec 13-14, but since then have appeared to gain strength. Large avalanches on these layers may still be possible to trigger in steep rocky terrain.
Snowpack depths range between 50-130 cm at higher elevations and taper rapidly below treeline. Check out this MIN reporting conditions on Sunday at Harvey Pass.
