The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes near and above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. The problems are two fold, and human triggered avalanches involving both wind drifted snow, and avalanches stepping down into buried persistent weak layers are possible. You are most likely to encounter unstable, recent deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features above tree line.
Deeper and more dangerous avalanches involving a persistent weak layer are possible on these same aspects near tree line and above.
Conditions remain very thin, and hazards such as rocks and logs have just been thinly covered.
Avalanches involving wind drifted snow remain possible today. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep slopes above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. Look for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Wind drifted areas often have a smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
I'm less certain about the propensity for avalanches to step down into buried persistent weak layers but this type of avalanche would be much more dangerous failing 2-3 feet deep. The Christmas rain crust is capping a snowpack that consists almost entirely of loose, sugary faceted snow. We've received a significant load of water and this is the first real test. The crust has varying degrees of thickness and strength - in some areas it may be enough to withstand the load, in others it may not. So for now, I'm going to avoid steep slopes on the north side of the compass. For more on that, see the video below that I made last week before this new load.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
Geyser Pass Road Conditions: Up to 6 inches of wet snow has fallen on the Geyser Pass road and it has not been plowed. Warm temperatures yesterday turned it into a sloppy mess down low and it melted back to the dirt/mud. Many vehicles made it up yesterday but it remains snow covered up high. 4x4 required.
Grooming: I rolled outGold Basin yesterday before taking the machines down for repairs.
Friday, January 30 - Saturday, January 31 - Moab Backcountry 101 Class - Our annual local backcountry avalanche class. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.
24 Hour Snow: 5" 72 Hour Snow: 10" Season Total Snow: 32" Depth at Gold Basin: 22"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NA Temp: 22° F
Weather
Warm and moist southwest flow returns as a another trough brews off the west coast. This will keep us in an unsettled pattern through mid week. Unseasonably warm temperatures will limit snow accumulations. Look for increasing clouds today with light to moderate southwest winds and high temperatures right around freezing. Our best chance for a little snow will be on Monday. Long range models are showing colder air and another system later in the week. We can only hope.
General Conditions
An additional 5 inches of snow fell between 6:00-8:00 a.m. yesterday morning with snow levels dropping down below 6000 feet. This brings storm totals in Gold Basin up to 10 inches at around 2 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE). Needless to say, conditions have improved but they remain thin. The Christmas rain crust has played an unexpected roll in improving things by providing a supportable surface over top of buried obstacles but there are still many above it. The crust is also capping a weak and faceted snowpack complicating avalanche conditions. More on that below.
Check out this video of conditions from yesterday.
Snowpack and Weather Data
NEW! Gold Basin webcam storm stake
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
